Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 281230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Mar 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 28-Mar 30 2017 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 28-Mar 30 2017

            Mar 28     Mar 29     Mar 30
00-03UT        5 (G1)     6 (G2)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     4
06-09UT        3          4          4
09-12UT        4          4          3
12-15UT        4          3          3
15-18UT        5 (G1)     4          3
18-21UT        4          5 (G1)     4
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          4

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at (G1-Minor) storm
levels, with an isolated period of moderate (G2-Moderate) storming
likely, on days one and two (28-29 Mar) as CH HSS influence persists.
The geomagnetic field is expected to return to primarily unsettled to
active levels, with an isolated period of minor (G1) storming remaining
likely on day three (30 Mar) as CH HSS effects continue, but begin
weakening.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2017

              Mar 28  Mar 29  Mar 30
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 28-Mar 30 2017

              Mar 28        Mar 29        Mar 30
R1-R2           15%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale:  There is a slight chance for (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts for the next three days (28-30 Mar) due to the instability and
magnetic complexity of Regions 2644 and 2645.



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