Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 061231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Feb 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 06-Feb 08 2016 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 06-Feb 08 2016

            Feb 06     Feb 07     Feb 08
00-03UT        2          2          4
03-06UT        3          2          4
06-09UT        2          2          3
09-12UT        2          2          3
12-15UT        2          2          3
15-18UT        1          3          3
18-21UT        1          3          3
21-00UT        2          3          4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active levels (Below G1-Minor) are expected on day three
(08 Feb) due to coronal hole high speed stream activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 06-Feb 08 2016

              Feb 06  Feb 07  Feb 08
S1 or greater    1%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 06-Feb 08 2016

              Feb 06        Feb 07        Feb 08
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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