Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 020031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Sep 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 02-Sep 04 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 02-Sep 04 2014

            Sep 02     Sep 03     Sep 04
00-03UT        2          2          3
03-06UT        3          2          2
06-09UT        2          3          2
09-12UT        2          2          2
12-15UT        2          2          3
15-18UT        2          1          3
18-21UT        2          2          3
21-00UT        2          2          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 02-Sep 04 2014

              Sep 02  Sep 03  Sep 04
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 02-Sep 04 2014

              Sep 02        Sep 03        Sep 04
R1-R2           20%           20%           35%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            5%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
exists on days one and two (02-03 Sep) due to potential flare activity
from Regions 2149 (N09W77) and 2152 (S16E01). Chances increase on day
three (04 Sep) due to the return of old Region 2139 (N15, L=053)


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