Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 241231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Jul 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 24-Jul 26 2016 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 24-Jul 26 2016

            Jul 24     Jul 25     Jul 26
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        1          1          2
06-09UT        1          1          1
09-12UT        2          1          1
12-15UT        2          1          2
15-18UT        2          1          4
18-21UT        2          2          4
21-00UT        3          2          4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 24-Jul 26 2016

              Jul 24  Jul 25  Jul 26
S1 or greater   10%     10%      1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms for days one and two (24-25 Jul) due to the flare
potential and favorable location of region 2567.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 24 2016 0620 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 24-Jul 26 2016

              Jul 24        Jul 25        Jul 26
R1-R2           40%           30%            1%
R3 or greater   10%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on days one and two (24-25 Jul) and a slight chance on day one for R3 or
greater radio blackouts due to flare potential from Region 2567.


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