Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
AXUS74 KEPZ 281608 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-


DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO
10 AM JUN 28 2014

...EL NINO WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

...PRESENT STATE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS OF JUNE 24: MOSTLY ALL OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO IS IN SEVERE DROUGHT.
EXCEPTIONS: SOUTH AND WEST LUNA AND SOUTHERN GRANT AND EAST
SOUTHEAST HIDALGO AND EAST NORTHEAST OTERO COUNTIES WHICH ARE IN
EXTREME DROUGHT WITH SOUTHEAST LUNA AND SOUTHERN DONA ANA IN
MODERATE DROUGHT...

...FAR WEST TEXAS: MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL...

SYNOPSIS...

AN EL NINO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. CHANCES OF EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE YEAR WITH THE PROBABILITY EXCEEDING 65% THIS SUMMER...INCREASING
TO AN 80% PROBABILITY THIS FALL AND WINTER AND DROPPING BACK DOWN TO
A 65% CHANCE BY NEXT SPRING.


THE EL PASO AREA RECEIVED ONLY .65 INCHES  OF RAIN 2014 TO DATE
WHICH IS 25% OF NORMAL. EL PASO HAS ONLY RECEIVED 1.02 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE OCT 2013. FURTHER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SINCE 2009 EL PASO TEXAS
HAS LOST SOME 11.53 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH IS EQUIVALENT TO LOSING
APPROXIMATELY 1.4 YEARS WORTH OF RAIN. MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
HAS RECEIVED ONLY 25% TO 50% OF NORMAL RAINFALL SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME AREAS ARE
RUNNING 50% TO 100% OF NORMAL BUT NOT UNIFORMALLY.

SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS FORECAST
FOR  WEST SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE FOR MAY AND
JUNE OF THIS YEAR AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE ON GOING DROUGHT.


SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST PREDICTIVE MODELS OF BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST THAT THE PRESENT DROUGHT CATEGORIES
SHOULD REMAIN IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
SEPTEMBER OF THIS YEAR BUT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE REMOVED FROM FAR WEST
TEXAS.

THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS KEYING IN ON THE EL NINO LIKELIHOOD
AND NOW PUTS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS IN THE
"ABOVE" NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM JULY 2014 THROUGH APRIL
2015 WITH CORRESPONDINGLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TEMPERATURES DURING THE  MONTHS OF AUGUST 2014 THROUGH MAY OF 2015..

THE LATE SPRING STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS SHOWED THE THE RIO GRANDE BASIN
IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO  AROUND 25% OF NORMAL WITH STREAM FLOW IN
THE GILA WILDERNESS ABOUT 25% TO 49% OF NORMAL. AT THIS TIME
ELEPHANT BUTTE RESERVOIR IS RUNNING AT 12.3% CAPACITY AS OF 6/27/2014.
THE SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING INTO EARLY SUMMER OF 2014
FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO IS FOR SOIL MOISTURE TO RUN
SOME 20 TO 40 MM BELOW NORMAL.


IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL
AND WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND
SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING
WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR
CROP/PASTURE LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD
WATER SHORTAGES OR RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER
ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2
DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS
AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS
THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP
AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT
WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH
YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE
OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS OCCUR.

RELATED WEB SITES...

THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EPZ/?N= ELECTROTYPE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE
FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...U.S
DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP
CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...505-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO

$$

NOVLAN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.