Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 101746
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-241800-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1246 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST WEEK...

SYNOPSIS...

APRIL HAS STARTED OUT WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND SEVERAL AREAS HAVE
EXPERIENCED A COUPLE OF EVENTS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS. SO FAR MOST LOCATIONS ON AVERAGE HAVE SEEN ABOUT A HALF-
INCH OF RAINFALL. OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
OR NO RAINFALL IN APRIL. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID APRIL AVERAGES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LESS
THAN ONE-HALF INCH EXPECTED. SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS REMAIN AT
A MINIMUM IN MANY LOCATIONS...BUT WILL GET WORSE IF DRIER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE INCREASING DUE TO
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND STRONGER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
THAT QUICKLY DRY THE FUELS. LONG TERM IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE
HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS
AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE
CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO
SUMMER 2014. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO
WATCH...SAYING THERE IS A 50 PERCENT OR GREATER CHANCE AN EL NINO
EVENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. EVEN THOUGH LA
NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID APRIL 8TH AND ISSUED ON APRIL
10TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE PAST WEEK. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO
EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) STATUS. THERE CONTINUED TO BE AREAS OF EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3) ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PORTIONS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MAINLY IN GILLESPIE...KERR... BANDERA...MEDINA AND VAL
VERDE COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY 64 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND SEVEN PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS MODERATE TO VERY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. IF WETTING
RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF APRIL 10TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 8
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

ATASCOSA
BEXAR
KENDALL
KERR
LLANO
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

BANDERA   FAYETTE    LEE
BASTROP   FRIO       MAVERICK
BLANCO    GILLESPIE  MEDINA
BURNET    GONZALES   REAL
CALDWELL  GUADALUPE  TRAVIS
COMAL     HAYS       WILLIAMSON
DEWITT    KARNES     ZAVALA
DIMMIT    KINNEY
EDWARDS   LAVACA

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO
CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE APRIL 10TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200     200-300     300-400    400-500    500-600

FAYETTE  GONZALES     BASTROP    ATASCOSA   BANDERA
         LAVACA       BLANCO     BEXAR      KARNES
         LEE          BURNET     DEWITT     MEDINA
         TRAVIS       CALDWELL   FRIO
         WILLIAMSON   COMAL      EDWARDS
                      DIMMIT     GILLESPIE
                      GUADALUPE  KENDALL
                      HAYS       KERR
                      LLANO      KINNEY
                      REAL       MAVERICK
                      WILSON     UVALDE
                      ZAVALA     VAL VERDE

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON APRIL 8 2014 INDICATED...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK...THE REGION HAD WARM...SUNNY CONDITIONS THAT SPURRED THE
GROWTH OF COOL-SEASON GRASSES. SOME COUNTIES RECEIVED FROM 0.25 TO
0.40 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH EVIDENCE OF SOME HAIL. FRUIT CROPS
LOOKED GOOD BUT MANY HAVE SUSTAINED SOME HAIL DAMAGE. GROWERS WERE
WRAPPING UP PLANTING CORN AND GRAIN SORGHUM...AND SOME BEGAN
PLANTING COTTON. PASTURES SLIGHTLY IMPROVED...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW PRODUCERS TO CEASE SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING. LIVESTOCK REMAINED
IN GOOD CONDITION THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TURKEYS WERE BREEDING AND
NESTING.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL...BUT
AMOUNTS  WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY SHOULD AVERAGE ONE-HALF
INCH OR LESS.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT APRIL 9, 2014 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014        NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL     TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       2.57        7.56        -4.99          34%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   2.72        7.71        -4.99          35%
SAN ANTONIO        2.14        6.39        -4.25          33%
DEL RIO            0.54        3.12        -2.58          17%

FOR APRIL...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED NO RAINFALL TO DATE. THIS IS
0.38 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.38 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR APRIL TO DATE IS 72.7 DEGREES. THIS IS 3.6 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR APRIL...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED 0.43 OF
AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.10 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.53
OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR APRIL TO DATE IS 68.2 DEGREES. THIS IS
1.4 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 66.8 DEGREES.

FOR APRIL...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.47 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.09 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.56 OF AN INCH. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR APRIL TO DATE IS 66.5
DEGREES. THIS IS 0.2 OF A DEGREE BELOW THE NORMAL OF 66.7 DEGREES.

FOR APRIL...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
0.44 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.16 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL
OF 0.60 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR APRIL TO DATE IS 65.3 DEGREES. THIS IS
0.6 OF A DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 64.7 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES A FAIRLY WARM AND
DRY PATTERN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED APRIL 9 AND VALID APRIL 17 THROUGH APRIL 23 WAS INDICATING
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO STRONG SIGNALS
FOR AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR MAY 2014 THROUGH JULY 2014... CREATED
ON MARCH 20TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THERE WERE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR AVERAGE...ABOVE
AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHICH INDICATES
PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.
THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON APRIL 17 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE INCREASING DUE TO BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION SINCE DECEMBER. LAKE LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL
SLOWLY. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE SPRING AND
INTO SUMMER THE EVAPORATION RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUE.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN
10 PERCENT) ACROSS THE GUADALUPE...MEDINA...FRIO AND NUECES RIVER
BASINS. BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) FLOWS WERE SEEN ACROSS THE
SAN ANTONIO AND RIO GRANDE BASINS. THE COLORADO BASIN WAS
REPORTING NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF APRIL 10TH...

LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1081.6           -35.4
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                973.7           -90.5
CANYON LAKE          909                  900.4            -8.6
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  776.7           -14.3
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  988.8           -31.2
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  627.2           -53.8

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
35 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT    APRIL    DEPARTURE FROM    2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL    AVERAGE     APRIL AVG      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 639.0 FT  667.8 FT    -28.8 FT         648.6 FT     -9.6 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY IN NON-DROUGHT. DROUGHT THRESHOLDS COULD BE EXCEEDED
OVER THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO IF THE LACK OF RAINFALL CONTINUES.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 4
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 2
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND APRIL 24 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$












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