Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 230336
DGTGUM
PMZ181-110200-
MAJURO-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
130 PM CHST THU FEB 23 2017

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN IN THE NORTHERN AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS...

SYNOPSIS...
AS ANTICIPATED...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CANCELED ITS LA NINA
ADVISORY AND INDICATED ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS EARLIER THIS MONTH.
THOSE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AT LEAST JUNE.
SEASONAL TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MONTHS. DRY WEATHER IS ENTRENCHED NORTH OF 8N FROM THE
DATE LINE WESTWARD TO YAP STATE. THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...THE
FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING KAPINGAMARANGI AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE US-AFFILIATED MICRONESIAN ISLANDS ARE GOING THROUGH
A RATHER DRY PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY HAVE ADEQUATE RAINFALL.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR NOW
SHOWS THAT WOTJE AND UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS ARE IN
SHORT-TERM SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR WORSENING OR EXTREME CONDITIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...
THE ATMOSPHERE NORTHWARD FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO WAKE ISLAND
CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY...AND SEVERE DROUGHT IS ALREADY AFFECTING
WOTJE AND UTIRIK AND LIKELY OTHER NORTHERN AND THE WESTERN ATOLLS.
THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALLS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE COMING WEEKS AND
ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 9N SUCH AS WOTJE...UTIRIK ...RONGELAP...
BIKINI AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS WILL SUFFER FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. MORE
PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO AFFECTING MALOELAP...LIKIEP AND
AILUK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS NOW INDICATE
THAT THE CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE SPRING AND LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY SUMMER. ISLANDS
NORTH OF 10N ARE EXPERIENCING DROUGHT AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL...AND THIS IS EXPECTED DURING THE COMING WEEKS. WHILE WE
HAVE NOT RECEIVED REPORTS FROM UTIRIK...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY. NOTE THAT WHILE WOTJE HAS HAD
NEARLY 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN...3.73 OR 83% FELL ON 8 AND 9 FEBRUARY.
THIS DOES ILLUSTRATE THE IMPORTANCE OF KEEPING YOUR CATCHMENTS CLEAN
AND READY TO CATCH RAIN.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  OCT    NOV    DEC    JAN   FEB      FEB
                                            (1-22)   NORMAL  % NORMAL

WOTJE            13.83   8.07   1.50   0.08  4.48    1.12     400
UTIRIK           18.47   9.46   1.99   0.63  NO REP  0.50       ?
MAJURO           15.28  17.36  11.77  17.65  7.59    5.99     127
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE  18.73  14.16  10.36   9.00  5.60    2.59     283

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION
CAUSED BY TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD HELP OFFSET
AND MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE BECOMING LESS
FREQUENT AND DRIER WEATHER IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF 8N TO
10N. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR WOTJE...
UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...ENEWETAK...AILUK...LIKIEP AND MALOELAP
ATOLLS WITH LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AND LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS. WHILE KWAJALEIN AND MAJURO MAY ALSO SEE SOME EXTENDED DRY
PERIODS...THEY HAVE HAD LARGE VOLUMES OF RAIN IN DECEMBER AND
JANUARY.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK AND ENEWETAK
HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO) SYSTEMS AND THAT SYSTEMS ARE
BEING PREPARED FOR AILUK...WOTJE AND MEJIT. EVEN WITH RO UNITS...
LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES WILL LIKELY SUFFER FROM THE
DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE SALTY. THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER CONSERVATION AND
GOOD HYGIENE.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED SINCE BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP AND AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER. FOR
EXAMPLE...WOTJE RECEIVED 3.73 INCHES OF RAIN ON 8 AND 9  FEBRUARY.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY MARCH 10 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY
TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL
DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT
INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM
CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT.

THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AND
WARNING AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FEDERATED
STATES OF MICRONESIA...EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT
MAJURO...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF
WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

GUARD

$$


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