Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 PM MST THU FEBRUARY 16 2017

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS OUTLOOK USES THE TERM GOODLAND SERVICE AREA TO REFER TO MAJOR
RIVERS LOCATED
- IN YUMA, KIT CARSON,AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO
- IN DUNDY,HITCHCOCK, AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA
- IN 13 NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES WHOSE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARIES
    ARE DELINEATED BY GREELEY, WICHITA, LOGAN, GOVE,
    GRAHAM, AND NORTON COUNTIES.
THESE RIVER SYSTEMS INCLUDE
- THE NORTH AND SOUTH FORKS OF THE REPUBLICAN RIVER
- THE REPUBLICAN RIVER
- BEAVER, SAPPA AND PRAIRIE DOG CREEKS
- SOUTH AND NORTH FORKS OF THE SOLOMON RIVER
- THE SALINE AND SMOKY HILL RIVERS

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM FEBRUARY 16 THROUGH MARCH 2, 2017.

OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED
NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE,
SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED.
OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. THUS, IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL, THEN
ACTUAL CRESTS WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
FLOOD EVENTS IN THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS
OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION, OR LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION.

MOST OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE THE
BEGINNING. OF THE YEAR.  THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE JUST BARELY BELOW NORMAL. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
RECEIVING BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. NO SNOW COVER CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE GOODLAND HSA.  THE
CURRENT DROUGHT MONITOR INDEX (WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU) SHOWS THAT
ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA.

NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) (WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/)
FORECASTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE PERIOD FEBRUARY 24 THROUGH MARCH 2.

RESERVOIR LEVELS CURRENTLY RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 48 PERCENT OF
CONSERVATION POOL CAPACITIES AT KEITH SEBELIUS LAKE IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS, HUGH BUTLER LAKE, AND ENDERS AND SWANSON RESERVOIRS IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE HARRY STRUNK RESERVIOR WHICH FEEDS MEDICINE
CREEK IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS CURRENTLY AT 95 PERCENT OF ITS
CONSERVATION CAPACITY.

GIVEN NO SNOWPACK, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS, AND FORECASTS INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION, AN
AVERAGE RISK OF FLOODING IS DESIGNATED FOR THE GOODLAND SERVICE AREA
FOR THE PERIOD OF FEBRUARY 16 TO MARCH 2.

$$

BULLER



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