Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FGUS73 KGRR 250141
ESFGRR
MIC005-015-025-035-037-045-057-065-067-073-075-077-081-085-
105-107-117-121-123-127-133-139-159-231800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
932 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON          9.0   10.0   10.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
EAST LANSING         7.0   10.0   13.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HOLT                 8.0    9.0   10.0 :   9    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE                7.0    9.0   11.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS         9.0   11.0   13.0 :  14    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS             7.0    9.0   10.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CALEDONIA           10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD             8.0   10.0   11.0 :  15    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA               8.5    9.5   10.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:GRAND RIVER
JACKSON             14.0   15.0   16.0 :   9    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
EATON RAPIDS         6.0    8.0    9.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DIMONDALE           13.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LANSING             11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GRAND LEDGE         11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PORTLAND            12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
IONIA               21.0   23.0   25.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LOWELL              15.0   18.0   20.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ADA                 20.0   22.0   25.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GRAND RAPIDS        18.0   21.0   23.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART               12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY               6.0    7.0    8.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROTON               9.0   11.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL            6.0    7.0    8.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE           5.5    6.5    7.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK         4.0    5.0    6.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL             8.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
BATTLE CREEK         9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
COMSTOCK             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NEW RICHMOND        17.0   19.0   21.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON           6.5    9.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG            5.0    7.0    8.0 :  21    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT          8.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PINE RIVER
ALMA                 8.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON           2.5    2.9    3.5    4.5    5.6    6.8    8.1
EAST LANSING          3.4    3.5    3.7    4.2    4.9    6.0    7.6
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HOLT                  3.8    3.9    4.5    6.3    7.4    8.1    8.9
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE                 2.9    2.9    3.1    3.7    5.1    6.5    7.6
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS          4.0    4.1    5.0    7.3    8.5    9.2   10.0
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS              3.3    3.4    3.8    4.5    5.2    6.4    7.6
CALEDONIA             3.6    3.8    4.1    5.0    6.2    8.0    9.9
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD              4.5    4.7    5.2    5.9    7.5    8.8   11.4
:FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA                3.9    4.0    4.4    4.9    5.7    6.5    8.6
:GRAND RIVER
JACKSON              10.1   10.4   10.9   11.7   12.8   14.1   14.9
EATON RAPIDS          3.7    3.7    3.7    3.9    4.1    4.5    4.9
DIMONDALE             5.0    5.1    5.5    6.2    7.0    8.0    8.8
LANSING               3.2    3.4    3.7    4.4    5.6    7.6    8.7
GRAND LEDGE           5.2    5.3    5.5    5.8    6.4    7.5    7.8
PORTLAND              5.8    6.1    6.4    7.1    7.7    9.1    9.8
IONIA                 9.7    9.8   10.7   12.5   15.2   18.0   22.8
LOWELL                6.2    6.4    6.7    7.8    9.7   12.1   17.4
ADA                   7.9    8.1    8.7   10.5   13.3   16.8   22.0
GRAND RAPIDS          3.8    3.9    4.5    6.1   10.0   14.2   20.5
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART                 7.3    7.4    7.5    7.9    8.9    9.9   11.5
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY                2.5    2.5    2.8    3.1    3.9    4.6    5.1
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROTON                5.3    5.5    5.7    6.3    7.3    8.3    8.8
:WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL             1.9    2.0    2.2    2.9    5.0    5.8    6.5
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE            1.9    2.0    2.3    2.9    4.1    4.7    5.5
:BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK          1.0    1.1    1.4    1.6    1.9    2.2    2.8
:KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL              4.6    4.8    5.3    5.6    6.0    7.1   10.0
BATTLE CREEK          3.5    3.6    3.9    4.4    4.9    6.3    7.5
COMSTOCK              4.4    4.5    4.8    5.3    5.9    8.0    9.1
NEW RICHMOND         11.3   11.4   12.0   12.9   14.0   15.1   15.7
:ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON            3.5    3.5    3.6    4.0    4.6    5.1    6.0
:PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG             4.0    4.0    4.2    4.7    5.0    5.1    5.3
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT           3.3    3.5    3.7    4.5    5.2    5.6    6.7
:PINE RIVER
ALMA                  2.7    2.7    3.1    3.8    4.9    6.1    7.8

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:RED CEDAR RIVER
WILLIAMSTON           2.4    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3
EAST LANSING          3.3    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1
:SYCAMORE CREEK
HOLT                  3.4    3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3
:LOOKING GLASS RIVER
EAGLE                 2.6    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.4    2.4
:MAPLE RIVER
MAPLE RAPIDS          3.4    3.2    3.1    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.7
:THORNAPPLE RIVER
HASTINGS              3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8
CALEDONIA             3.3    3.3    3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9
:ROGUE RIVER
ROCKFORD              4.1    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.8    3.7    3.7
:FLAT RIVER
SMYRNA                3.7    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4
:GRAND RIVER
JACKSON               8.9    8.9    8.8    8.7    8.6    8.5    8.5
EATON RAPIDS          3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
DIMONDALE             4.6    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.1    4.1
LANSING               2.8    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.5    2.4    2.4
GRAND LEDGE           4.9    4.9    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.5
PORTLAND              5.2    5.2    5.1    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.8
IONIA                 8.9    8.8    8.6    8.3    8.1    8.0    8.0
LOWELL                5.5    5.5    5.3    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9
ADA                   6.7    6.6    6.2    5.8    5.4    5.4    5.3
GRAND RAPIDS          3.4    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.0
:MUSKEGON RIVER
EVART                 7.1    7.1    7.0    7.0    6.9    6.9    6.9
:LITTLE MUSKEGON RIVER
MORLEY                2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2
:MUSKEGON RIVER
CROTON                5.0    4.9    4.9    4.8    4.8    4.7    4.7
:WHITE RIVER
WHITEHALL             1.7    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.4
:PERE MARQUETTE RIVER
SCOTTVILLE            1.7    1.7    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5
:BATTLE CREEK
BATTLE CREEK          0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.8    0.8    0.8
:KALAMAZOO RIVER
MARSHALL              4.3    4.3    4.2    4.1    3.3    3.3    3.3
BATTLE CREEK          3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0
COMSTOCK              4.2    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.0    4.0    3.9
NEW RICHMOND         10.5   10.4   10.3   10.1    9.9    9.7    9.6
:ST JOSEPH RIVER
BURLINGTON            3.4    3.2    3.1    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9
:PORTAGE RIVER
VICKSBURG             3.8    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.4
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
MT PLEASANT           3.1    3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
:PINE RIVER
ALMA                  1.7    1.6    1.5    1.4    1.3    1.3    1.2

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/GRR FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH...
NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH...THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.

$$

MJS







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