Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1134 AM CST Thu Mar 2 2017

              ...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...SPRING FLOOD RISK IS A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE TO AVERAGE IN THE
MIDSOUTH...

The 2017 Spring Flood Outlook for the Midsouth calls for a little
below average to average risk of minor flooding.

...MISSISSIPPI RIVER SPRING FLOOD RISK...

The risk of flooding along the Mississippi River this year in the
Midsouth is normal. Rain chance March through May in both the
Upper Mississippi River Basin and the Ohio River Basin is normal
in the Midwest. Normal rain in these basins usually brings minor
flooding.

Below normal rain most of the Midwest in February let topsoil
moisture dry to low levels. Additionally, warm temperatures this
year caused grass and trees to green up early. Green grass and
growing trees use more soil moisture usage. This combination lower
soil moisture and faster soil water uptake in early spring will
reduce runoff.

Average spring crests at Cairo hover around 43 feet. A crest of
43 feet would flood lots of land and roads between Mississippi
River levees. Mississippi backwater flooding could affect
substantual acreage in Western Dyer and Lauderdale Counties.

...MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SPRING FLOOD RISK...

Missouri Bootheel and Northeast and East-Central Arkansas have
been drier than normal recently. Lake Wappapello has all of its
flood control storage capacity. These factors along with an early
green up and normal spring rain gives the St. Francis River
Floodway a lower than normal flood risk this spring. Outside the
floodway, flooding will be driven by heavy thunderstorms.

...WEST TENNESSEE...

Average spring flood risk is expected along West Tennessee
tributaries. Heavy thunderstorms usually occur in spring and
bring creeks and rivers into flood quickly.

...NORTH MISSISSIPPI DELTA AND HILL AREAS EAST OF THE DELTA...

The North Mississippi Delta has been drier than normal last
month. Secondly, the flood control dams...Arkabutla, Sardis, and
Enid, have all their flood contral storage capacity availble.
The Sunflower, Coldwater and Tallahatchie Rivers have lower than
normal risk of flooding. Meanwhile, smaller bayous, bogues, and
creeks in the Dela will flood from very heavy rains that often occur
this time of year.

North Mississippi east of the Delta has the normal risk of
flooding from heavy rain making storms. The Coldwater, Little
Tallahatchie, and Yocona commonly flood sometime during spring.

$$



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