Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
189
FGUS71 KPHI 312208
ESFPHI
DEC001-003-005-MDC011-015-029-035-041-NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-
019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-PAC011-017-025-029-045-
077-089-091-095-101-012130-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
607 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 7

THIS IS THE SEVENTH (AND LAST) IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE
MIDDLE/LOWER DELAWARE, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER
BASINS. THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT
CONDITIONS SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER
AND ITS WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE CONDITIONS, STREAMFLOW, FUTURE
PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS.

THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY OR EXTENT OF ANY FUTURE
RIVER FLOODING.

IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF YEAR, EVEN
WHEN THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 31 TO APRIL 14, 2016.

IN THE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA), THE
OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOUT NORMAL.

NOTE - FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, SEE THE STATEMENT
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) FROM OUR BINGHAMTON (BGM), NEW YORK OFFICE.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

RECENT PRECIPITATION - BELOW NORMAL. BETWEEN 1.0 AND 3.0 INCHES OF
LIQUID HAVE BEEN RECORDED OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. PRECIPITATION
DEPARTURE MAPS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE
WATER SUPPLY TAB).

SNOW COVER - NORMAL. NO HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE HSA. DEPTH AND BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT
ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MARFC (UNDER THE SEASONAL
INTEREST TAB) OR WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV (UNDER THE NATIONAL ANALYSIS
TAB).

RIVER ICE - NORMAL. NO ICE IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE HSA.

STREAMFLOW - BELOW NORMAL. REAL TIME WATER DATA IS AVAILABLE FROM
THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BY VISITING
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE MONITORING CHARTS
LONG-TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX) FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES...
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/REGIONAL_
MONITORING/PALMER.GIF AS WELL AS WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

GROUND WATER - USGS MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VARIABLE, RANGING FROM BELOW
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTP://GROUNDWATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS IN
THE AREA ARE RUNNING NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY,
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
TO OUR SOUTH, WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND PASSING TO OUR EAST. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH ONE MOVING TO OUR
NORTH AND ONE DIVING TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY,
WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND THURSDAY. THE 8 TO 14 DAY
CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE PRECIPITATION.

SUMMARY - TAKING ALL OF THE INCLUDED VARIABLES INTO CONSIDERATION,
THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOUT NORMAL.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK UNTIL NEXT WINTER.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI

$$

SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH APRIL 14, 2016:

OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...NORMAL
CURRENT FLOODING...NONE
RECENT PRECIPITATION...BELOW NORMAL
SNOW COVER...NORMAL
RIVER ICE...NORMAL
STREAMFLOW...BELOW NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE...NORMAL
GROUND WATER...VARIABLE, BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...NORMAL

$$

KRUZDLO



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.