Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FGUS73 KSGF 281614
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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1110 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

...River Flooding Potential Through Late December Near to Above
Normal...

Larger rivers in the northern and western portions of the NWS
Springfield Hydrologic Service Area(HSA)...including the Little
Osage...Marmaton...Big Piney...Spring (Waco to Baxter Springs)...and
Elk will have a higher than normal chance of exceeding flood stage
through the late December. All other larger rivers...including the
Roubidoux...Gasconade...James and Jacks Fork...will have near normal
chances for exceeding flood stage over through late December. More
details on probabilities of flooding and exceeding set stages are
included below.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  09/24/2016  - 12/23/2016

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Little Osage River
Fulton              22.0   25.0   30.0 :  54   37   39   28   <5   <5
Horton              41.0   45.0   50.0 :  67   57   35   29   <5   <5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott          38.0   42.0   43.0 :  27   22    8    9   <5   <5
Nevada              20.0   26.0   31.0 :  55   46   28   21   13   11
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen          21.0   26.0   30.0 :  15   15   <5    5   <5   <5
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville          7.0   14.0   20.0 :  36   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood    8.0   15.0   23.0 :  44   37   14   13   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Jerome              15.0   25.0   30.0 :  25   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring River
Carthage            10.0   14.0   20.0 :  19   20    7    7   <5   <5
Waco                19.0   30.0   33.0 :  31   27   <5   <5   <5   <5
Baxter Springs      14.0   22.0   30.0 :  33   24   15   10   <5   <5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin              14.0   15.0   16.0 :  11   10    8    7   <5   <5
:Elk River
Tiff City           15.0   20.0   25.0 :  23   19   12    8   <5   <5
:Jacks Fork
Alley Spring         9.0   12.0   16.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
:Jacks Fork River
Eminence            12.0   15.0   20.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
:James River
Galena              15.0   25.0   31.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
:North Fork of White River
Tecumseh            20.0   25.0   30.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 09/24/2016  - 12/23/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                4.0    4.0    5.9   22.2   27.7   28.9   29.2
Horton               28.2   28.4   39.5   43.3   45.6   47.7   47.9
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott            7.1    8.1   18.7   31.4   39.1   41.7   42.6
Nevada                2.7    4.2   11.9   22.3   27.3   31.9   33.3
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            1.9    2.6    4.7    9.3   15.8   22.9   25.1
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           2.8    3.2    3.9    5.5    8.7   11.1   12.1
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     1.8    2.4    4.2    7.5   12.4   16.5   18.6
:Gasconade River
Jerome                2.0    2.8    4.4    9.7   15.2   20.0   22.1
:Spring River
Carthage              3.0    3.0    3.5    4.7    8.4   13.1   14.9
Waco                  2.7    3.9    7.8   12.5   21.0   26.1   28.0
Baxter Springs        3.7    4.0    6.0    8.8   16.9   24.8   28.2
:Shoal Creek
Joplin                2.1    2.1    3.5    5.6    8.5   14.8   15.6
:Elk River
Tiff City             3.3    3.6    6.0    9.7   14.5   21.0   22.4
:Jacks Fork
Alley Spring          3.2    3.8    4.2    4.7    5.0    5.6    6.0
:Jacks Fork River
Eminence              2.8    3.4    3.6    4.2    4.7    5.4    6.0
:James River
Galena                3.2    3.7    4.7    5.1    5.4    6.1    6.9
:North Fork of White River
Tecumseh              2.6    2.8    3.0    3.1    3.3    3.6    4.0

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 09/24/2016  - 12/23/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                3.9    3.8    3.5    3.4    3.2    3.1    3.1
Horton               27.9   27.6   26.8   26.3   25.5   25.1   25.1
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott            7.1    7.1    7.0    6.9    6.8    6.8    6.7
Nevada                2.6    2.5    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            1.8    1.8    1.5    1.2    0.6    0.2    0.2
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           2.8    2.8    2.6    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.4
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     1.8    1.7    1.5    1.3    1.2    1.1    1.0
:Gasconade River
Jerome                1.9    1.8    1.6    1.4    1.2    1.1    1.0

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation.

By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated
with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These
probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued during the last week of October.

$$

Terry



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