Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 041901
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
200 PM EST THU JAN 4 2018

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL POTENTIAL OF
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA...

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION. THE
FORECAST FOR BELOW NORMAL RIVER FLOODING INDICATES THAT THE
MAGNITUDE AND NUMBER OF EVENTS WILL BE LESS THAN TYPICAL.

OVERALL...CONSIDERING BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH WINTER INTO
SPRING...THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF RIVER
FLOODING WILL BE LESS THAN USUAL.


FOR 28-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS IN THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...
STREAMFLOW LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MOST BASINS.  THE
EXCEPTION BEING THOSE SMALLER BASINS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IN
NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA.  THEY ARE IN THE NORMAL RANGE.

PAST PRECIPITATION...IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON SERFC
MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...RAINFALL IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...ROUGHLY WEST OF I-95  UNTIL YOU GET INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE IT STAYS NORTH OF THE I-20 HAS BEEN BELOW
NORMAL...AND IN SOME CASES...WELL BELOW NORMAL. SOME ABOVE NORMAL
AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE REST OF THE AREA BETWEEN THAT I-95/I-
20 LINE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER, THE LAST 90-DAYS SHOW BELOW
NORMAL FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE STATES.

RESERVOIRS...MOST OF THE RESERVOIRS IN THE REGION ARE NEAR THEIR
TARGET POOLS.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT IS ALONG THE SAVANNAH BASIN AT
THE BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.  THE TWO MAIN CORPS
RESERVOIRS THAT HAVE THE LARGEST WATER SUPPLY ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME YEAR.  AS WE HEAD INTO WINTER...THIS IS THE MAIN
RECHARGE SEASON FOR THOSE AND MANY OTHER RESERVOIRS IN THIS AREA.

SNOW PACK...THERE IS A SNOWPACK OF ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES
TO UP TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM NEAR THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA LINE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC.  THIS
SHOULD MELT IN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND SLOWLY MELT IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA IN THE COMING WEEK BUT SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT
ON RIVER FLOODING.

SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES SHOW NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AREA.  AT THIS TIME...MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS THAT WOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR WINTER INTO SPRING
SPRING...BASED ON THE CPC LONG LEAD OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH
MAY...THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY MONTH.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC.  IN THE WATER SUPPLY
PULLDOWN MENU IS THE WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK.

HAMILL



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