Extended Streamflow Guidance
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER TAUNTON MA
1040 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /2/

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS NEAR TO LOCALLY A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FROM PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MAINE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK STATE NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE
TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL FROM NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EAST INTO
MUCH OF INTERIOR MAINE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO
ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL TO NON-EXISTENT.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

A RATHER ANOMALOUS WARM AND POTENTIALLY STORMY PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED TO UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS MAINE
WHERE SOME COLD AIR COULD HANG TOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
IN SOUTHERN CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE NUMERICAL WEATHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLIGHTING A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL STORMINESS POSSIBLE ON
ITS HEELS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. RIGHT NOW...ODDS FAVOR MORE RAIN THAN
SNOW ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE THERE COULD BE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW INITIALLY.

THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINS WITH THE
STORM EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE MOST LIKELY SPOTS FOR HEAVY RAIN
RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF TOTAL
PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR ALONG WITH SOME SNOW MELT DURING NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND FORCES A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE ONSHORE. AFTER
THAT...SIGNS DO POINT TO A RETURN TO MORE WINTERLIKE TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF JANUARY INTO EARLY FEBRUARY AS THE JET STREAM ATTEMPTS TO
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL LOCATION FOR MID-WINTER.

THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION VALID FOR 24-28 JANUARY 2017 TENDS TO
AGREE WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED THOUGHTS AS IT CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NERFC SERVICE AREA WITH
PRECIPITATION ALSO FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

WE HAVE SEEN A LARGE SCALE DECREASE IN SNOWPACK ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE AND NEW ENGLAND OUTSIDE OF INTERIOR MAINE OVER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS DUE TO WARMTH AND RAINFALL. IN FACT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ON THE GROUND SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK RIVER IN NEW YORK
STATE OR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH IS QUITE RARE FOR THE
LATTER ONE-HALF OF JANUARY.

...NEW YORK STATE...

THERE IS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON THE GROUND SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER IN NEW YORK STATE. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
CATSKILLS AND HIGH TERRAIN NORTH OF BINGHAMTON HAVE SOME PATCHY
SNOWS BUT NOTHING HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT. NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER IN NEW YORK STATE...SNOW DEPTHS ARE RUNNING AROUND OR LESS
THAN 10 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND TUG HILL
PLATEAU WITH 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE ABOUT 1500 FEET. THE HIGHEST SNOW
DEPTHS ARE ACTUALLY IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS JUST NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER. NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAIN RANGE...SNOW DEPTHS
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BORDERING CANADA DECREASE TO 6
INCHES OR LESS. SNOW DEPTHS ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAIN RANGE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE.
OTHERWISE...SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE EMPIRE STATE ARE BELOW TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY.

THERE IS NO HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT WATER IN THE SNOWPACK FROM
THE MOHAWK RIVER SOUTH AND WEST IN NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND TUG HILL PLATEAU REGIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE...WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE COMMON IN THE
VALLEYS...INCREASING TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES ABOVE 1500 FEET.
THERE ARE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE TUG HILL AND FAR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. NORTH OF
THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAIN RANGE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS DROP OFF TO
BETWEEN A TRACE AND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE THEY ARE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF WINTER.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ON THE GROUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND FAR NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS NEAR 10 INCHES ABOVE 1500 FEET IN THE BERKSHIRE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-JANUARY

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BASICALLY AN INCH OR LESS FOR ALL AREAS
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS WHERE THEY ARE LOCALLY
1 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE 1500 FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE MARKEDLY
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MID-JANUARY.

...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...

ACROSS MOST VALLEY AND COASTAL LOCATIONS IN BOTH VERMONT AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE...SNOW DEPTHS ARE RUNNING MOSTLY UNDER 10 INCHES WITH EVEN
BARE GROUND NEAR THE COAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN BOTH VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW DEPTHS
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...SNOW DEPTHS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OTHERWISE...SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT ARE
TRENDING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE IN VERMONT AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR OR
LESS THAN AN INCH. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER IS...ON AVERAGE...HELD IN
THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF BOTH STATES BELOW 1000 FEET BUT
THESE AMOUNTS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PRIMARILY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT DO AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF VERMONT AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE FOR LATE JANUARY.

...MAINE...

WITHIN 10 OR 20 MILES OF THE COAST IN MAINE...SNOW DEPTHS ARE
RUNNING NEAR OR LESS THAN 10 INCHES NOW WITH BARE GROUND EXTENDING A
BIT FURTHER INLAND IN DOWNEAST MAINE. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR OF
MAINE...SNOW DEPTHS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET WITH
HIGHER TOTALS OVER 30 INCHES FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. SNOW DEPTHS ARE FAIRLY NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE
FOR LATTER JANUARY...PERHAPS A TAD BELOW NORMAL RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MAINE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE
BETWEEN A TRACE AND 2 INCHES AND THOSE LOW AMOUNTS EXTEND INLAND
ABOUT 20 OR 30 MILES IN DOWNEAST MAINE. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR OF
MAINE...WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES FOUND IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MAINE INCLUDING THE
NORTHWEST LOGGING WOODS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR MID-WINTER
NORMALS ACROSS MAINE EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY ARE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT HAVE PUT A DENT IN THE LONG TERM
DROUGHT ACROSS A LOT OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. SURVEYS OF
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ( USGS ) GROUNDWATER MONITORING
WELLS GENERALLY SHOW RISES OVER THE LAST MONTH WITH LEVELS IMPROVING
FROM DECEMBER. IN FACT...LARGE SWATHS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW
YORK STATE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY ARE SEEING
GROUNDWATER LEVELS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL NOW. ALSO...SOME AREAS OF
DOWNEAST MAINE ARE SEEING RECORD HIGH GROUNDWATER LEVELS.
FOR EXAMPLE...THE USGS GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELL AT AMHERST JUST
EAST OF BANGOR WAS AT ITS HIGHEST JANUARY LEVEL IN THE 25 YEAR
PERIOD OF RECORD AS OF 17 JANUARY 2017. GROUNDWATER REMAINS
PROBLEMATIC ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND LONG ISLAND REGIONS
IN NEW YORK STATE EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF CONNECTICUT WHERE
LEVELS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE PROSPECT FOR NEAR TERM RAINS IN
THESE AREAS IS WELCOME. GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE ALSO WELL BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS A LOT OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE...HOWEVER...IN THOSE AREAS THERE IS PLENTY OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND TO RECHARGE THE SYSTEM ONCE THE MELT BEGINS IN EARNEST THIS
SPRING.

THE NATURE OF THE DROUGHT IS NOW BECOMING MUCH MORE LONG TERM VERSUS
SHORT TERM AND THAT IS INDICATED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE
LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX ISSUED ON 14 JANUARY 2017. THE
PALMER INDEX SHOWED MODERATE DROUGHT LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF
CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND WITH SEVERE DROUGHT LEVELS IN NORTHEAST
VERMONT. HOWEVER...DUE TO RECENT BOUTS OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT...THE
PALMER INDEX IS NOW SHOWING UNUSUALLY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. SO REALLY...THE IMPACT OF THE DROUGHT RIGHT
NOW IS MOSTLY SEEN IN DEEP...SLOW RESPONDING GROUNDWATER WELLS AS
WELL AS RESERVOIR LEVELS AND NOT SO MUCH IN NEAR SURFACE SOIL
MOISTURE OR SURFACE RIVER FLOWS.

TAKING A LOOK AT RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...NO ALARMINGLY
LOW LEVELS ARE SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE OR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOR EXAMPLE...INDIAN LAKE IN THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE IS ROUGHLY 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN IS ABOUT 0.5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. IN
MAINE...RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND KENNEBEC RIVER
BASINS ARE FINE AS WELL WITH LONG TERM STORAGE IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN
RIVER BASIN ABOUT 8.5 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL AS OF 16 JANUARY 2017.
THE PROBLEMS ARE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY
SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF 7 LARGE RESERVOIRS IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
STATE...WAS AT JUST 71.4 PERCENT CAPACITY AS OF 17 JANUARY 2017
WHICH WAS 15 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. IT IS WORTHY NOTING THAT THIS IS
ABOUT A 7 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST 2 WEEKS. IN
MASSACHUSETTS...QUABBIN RESERVOIR...THE MAIN WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR
FOR 47 COMMUNITIES IN METRO BOSTON HAD DIPPED BELOW 80 PERCENT
CAPACITY AS OF 1 JANUARY 2017...PUTTING IT BELOW NORMAL AS WELL.
WITH JUST ABOUT NO SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WATER SUPPLY DOES REMAIN A CONCERN GOING
THROUGH THIS WINTER INTO SPRING UNLESS WE SEE ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR SEVERAL MONTHS.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ACROSS THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW
YORK STATE ARE RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT ACROSS LONG
ISLAND WHERE THEY CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. FLOWS ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WHERE FLOODING WAS OBSERVED
OVER THE PAST 10 DAYS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH MELTING
SNOW.

RIVER ICE IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS INTERIOR MAINE...CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN VERMONT AND NEW YORK STATE MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. RECENT MEASUREMENTS ACROSS INTERIOR MAINE
INDICATED ICE THICKNESSES OF JUST OVER A FOOT ON RIVERS LIKE THE
CARRABASSET AND SANDY. ICE THICKNESSES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER ON
NORTHERN MAINE RIVERS ALTHOUGH NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS WERE
AVAILABLE. ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...THE
ICE IS THOUGHT TO BE A BIT THINNER...LIKELY BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES
THICK BUT WITHOUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS IT IS HARD TO BE TOTALLY SURE.
THERE ARE SOME ICE JAMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ONE IS
OBSERVABLE ON THE USGS WEBCAM ON THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT AUGUSTA
MAINE. OTHERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON THE MISSISQUOI RIVER IN NORTHERN
VERMONT AND THE AU SABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND INTERIOR MASSACHUSETTS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE.
IN THESE AREAS...RIVER FLOWS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...GROUNDWATER
LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED TO NEAR NORMAL AND LONG TERM ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE STATES ARE ALSO NEAR NORMAL. AND ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW ON THE GROUND AVAILABLE FOR MELT RUNOFF IS CERTAINLY BELOW
NORMAL...THE POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRINGING
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTS THE SCALE ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY A SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING OVER THE NEXT
TWO WEEKS. IN THE LONG TERM...HOWEVER...MOST OF THESE AREAS MAINTAIN
A NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THREAT FOR FLOODING UNLESS SNOW DEPTHS
MARKEDLY INCREASE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. WITHIN THESE AREAS...THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL DUE TO EXISTING SNOWPACK ACROSS
MAINE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHEAST VERMONT AND THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAIN REGIONS OF NEW YORK STATE.
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ALSO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE DUE TO HIGH RIVER FLOW AND WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THE
LOWEST FLOOD POTENTIALS ARE FOUND ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK STATE INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
WESTERN CONNECTICUT DUE TO LOW GROUNDWATER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS AND
A LACK OF SNOWCOVER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ACTUALLY A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE NORTH OF
THE MOHAWK RIVER. IN THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE RIVER ICE IS
THINNER THAN NORMAL...THERE ARE SOME CURRENT ICE JAMS IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE. WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK...THE THOUGHT IS THAT RUNOFF FROM RAIN
AND SNOWMELT MAY BOOST RIVER FLOWS ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME ICE JAM RISK
ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS IS CERTAINLY UNUSUAL FOR LATE JANUARY HENCE
THE ELEVATED ICE JAM FLOOD POTENTIAL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FOR MUCH OF MAINE. IN THESE AREAS...RIVER
ICE IS LOCKED IN PLACE AND IS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING A FOOT THICK
IN MANY PLACES. THE FORECAST STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BRING SOME
RAIN AFTER A PERIOD OF SNOW OR ICE BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
NO WIDESPREAD ICE MOVEMENT WILL TAKE PLACE BECAUSE THE WINDOW FOR
RUNOFF WILL NOT BE THAT LARGE AND THUS RUNOFF WILL NOT BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO BOOST RIVER FLOWS ENOUGH TO LIFT AND BREAK THE
STRUCTURALLY SOUND ICE IN THESE AREAS. THEREFORE...JUST A NORMAL
RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS DEEMED TO EXIST IN THESE AREAS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS REMAINS BELOW NORMAL TO
NON-EXISTENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER
SOUTH AND WEST IN NEW YORK STATE. IN THESE AREAS...THERE IS LITTLE
TO NO ICE ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS AND WITH FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST...WIDESPREAD RIVER ICE
FORMATION IS NOT LIKELY. WHAT ICE IS IN PLACE IS SO THIN THAT IT
WOULD LIKELY JUST BUCKLE AND FLUSH OUT WITH ANY APPRECIABLE INCREASE
IN RIVER FLOW...POSING VERY LITTLE JAM RISK. HENCE A BELOW NORMAL
THREAT FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS DEEMED TO EXIST IN THESE AREAS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT


        ***WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/NERFC/OPS/FP1_TODAY.JPG***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NERFC ON THURSDAY 2 FEBRUARY 2017.

END/HORWOOD
$$



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