Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
000
AWUS01 KWNH 241413
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-242011-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0232
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1011 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS & SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 241411Z - 242011Z

SUMMARY...AN MCV ACROSS NORTHEAST KS IS EXPECTED TO HELP ORGANIZE
NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO.
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A THERMAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER AND
SOUTHWEST MO ALONG WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KS ARE ACTING AS BOUNDARIES FOR NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION NEAR THE
SOUTHERN KS/MO BORDER ACROSS SOUTHERN MO.  THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER SOUTHERN TX, THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR
JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST, AND TWO DYING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES ACROSS NORTHEAST KS AND EASTERN OK.  MUCAPE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS AND OK IS IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE, WITH 850 HPA
INFLOW SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT AND SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 30 KTS PER VAD
WIND PROFILES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.75" LIE ACROSS
THE REGION PER RECENT RAP RUNS AND GPS VALUES.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CIN TO ERODE BY 15Z, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED.  BUILDING MLCAPE VALUES
TO 3000+ J/KG IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHICH
WOULD HELP STRENGTHEN NEW CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS EVEN WHILE 850 HPA
INFLOW WEAKENS LATER TODAY.  BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 25-30 KTS, WHICH SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 20 KTS, A COMPROMISE OF THE FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS AND THE 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS
PATTERN THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN.  THE 00Z SPC WRF, 00Z
WRF4NSSL, AS WELL AS THE 09Z & 11Z HRRR EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE HAVE
A SIGNAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5" RANGE, WHICH COULD FALL
QUICKLY.  HOURLY RAIN RATES OF UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AND THE BACKING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AFTER 17Z.
FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE.

ROTH

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38979302 38149183 36209063 35729160 36289353
            36789490 37729634 38269612 38839544 38669408



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.