Flood Statement
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
WGUS83 KFGF 290111
FLSFGF
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Eastern North Dakota/Grand Forks ND
811 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017


...The flood warning has been extended for these river locations in
North Dakota...

  * Walhalla...on the Pembina River...in Pembina and Cavalier Counties
  * Neche...on the Pembina River...in Pembina County

...The flood warning continues for these river locations in
Minnesota...North Dakota...

  * Drayton...on the Red River ...in Marshall...Walsh...Kittson and
  Pembina Counties
  * Pembina...on the Red River ...in Kittson and Pembina Counties
  * Upstream of Warren...on the Snake River ...in Marshall County
  * Hallock...on the Two Rivers River ...in Kittson County
  * Grafton...on the Park River ...in Walsh County


 .Warm temperatures are forecast over northeastern North
 Dakota and northwest Minnesota this week with high temperatures
 well above freezing and low temperatures near or above freezing.

 There is a lot of uncertainty with these forecasts.

 There is some uncertainty about how much water is available
 for runoff.  Most of the snow in the area fell in December
 and has experienced several warmups since then. There may
 have been some melt and infiltration or even losses to
 sublimation. We have been monitoring snow measurements in the
 area, and the amount of water we have in our model is
 consistent with recent NOHRSC Gamma Surveys.

 Our forecasts only include 48 hours of QPF.  Some of the met
 models are indicating the possibility of some rain events
 during the first week of April.  This rain may coincide
 with the initial crest timing in the Pembina River Basin,
 and any rainfall around that time could exacerbate the
 flooding.

 The melt rates in our models are highly dependent on the
 temperature forecast used.  If these forecasts change over
 time or are not realized, that will also impact the river
 forecast.

 This forecast is for a 7-day period...the highest stage
 indicated may not reflect the crest for this event.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...turn around, don`t drown...

 - Don`t travel through flooded areas!

 - Persons in the warned area need to take steps to protect life
   and property. If necessary, move to a higher and safer location.

 - Persons living in the Red River Basin should monitor river
   levels while the river is in, or near, flood.

For more information...go to the AHPS/River section
on our web page at:      www.weather.gov/grandforks

&&

MNC069-089-NDC067-099-301311-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0018.170403T0000Z-170405T0000Z/
/DRTN8.1.SM.170403T0000Z.170403T0000Z.170403T1800Z.NO/
811 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Drayton...on the Red River.
* from Sunday evening to Tuesday April 04...or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  7:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 27.5 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 32.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river is expected to rise to near Flood Stage Sunday
  evening.
* The river is forecast to crest between 31 and 33 ft around April 2.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 32.0 feet, Flood Warning Stage...
  Minor.Agricultural Damage starts.

&&

Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue
(month/day)         03/29  03/30  03/31  04/01  04/02  04/03  04/04
  Drayton           28.6   29.7   30.7   31.6   32.0   31.9   31.5
LAT...LON 4881 9734 4848 9725 4846 9705 4874 9702


$$

MNC069-NDC067-301310-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0013.170331T0335Z-000000T0000Z/
/PBNN8.1.ER.170331T0335Z.170404T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
811 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Pembina...on the Red River.
* from Thursday evening until further notice...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  7:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 34.4 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 39.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Thursday night and continue to
  rise to near 43.9 feet by Tuesday mid-morning. additional rises are
  possible thereafter.
* Crest 43-45 ft around April 3.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 44.0 feet, Moderate Flood Stage.

&&

Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue
(month/day)         03/29  03/30  03/31  04/01  04/02  04/03  04/04
  Pembina           36.5   38.7   40.5   41.9   43.1   43.8   43.9
LAT...LON 4900 9700 4900 9740 4877 9732 4874 9701


$$

MNC089-301310-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170403T0000Z/
/MKLM5.1.SM.170329T0132Z.000000T0000Z.170401T1800Z.NO/
811 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Upstream of Warren...on the Snake River.
* until Sunday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  6:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 67.0 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 67.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Tuesday evening and continue
  to rise to near 67.5 feet by early Friday morning. The river will
  fall below Flood Stage by Saturday early afternoon.
* The river is forecast to crest at 67.5 ft. on early Friday morning
  during this 7-day period.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 67.0 feet, Flood Warning Stage...MINOR.

&&

Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue
(month/day)         03/29  03/30  03/31  04/01  04/02  04/03  04/04
  Upstream of Warr  67.1   67.4   67.3   66.9   66.1   65.5   65.2
LAT...LON 4820 9684 4817 9681 4820 9664 4823 9666


$$

MNC069-301310-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HLLM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170330T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
811 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Hallock...on the Two Rivers River.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 805.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and during the next 7 days...Minor
  flooding is forecast.
* Minor Flood Stage is 802.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river will rise to a crest near 805.5 feet sometime
  Wednesday evening then begin falling.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 806.0 feet, Moderate FLood Stage.Storm
  sewers start backing up.Storm sewer valve at T.H. 175 Bridge
  closed. Lift Pump inspected.

&&

Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue
(month/day)         03/29  03/30  03/31  04/01  04/02  04/03  04/04
  Hallock          805.5  805.5  805.4  804.9  804.4  803.9  803.4
LAT...LON 4888 9719 4873 9713 4867 9662 4885 9667


$$

NDC099-301310-
/O.CON.KFGF.FL.W.0014.170330T0400Z-000000T0000Z/
/GRNN8.3.ER.170330T0400Z.170402T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
811 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Grafton...on the Park River.
* from Wednesday evening until further notice...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  7:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 10.4 feet.
* Major Flood Stage is 14.5 feet.
* Crest 14.5-16 ft (4700-6200 cfs) around April 1.

 Based on field observations and satellite imagery
 most of the snow has melted in the downstream half of the
 basin. Even though the snow has melted, little of that water
 has made it into the river. Field reports indicate that
 there is lots of ice remaining in the field drains and ditches
 waiting to be released into the river system.

 There is still a snow cover in the upstream portions of the
 basin, although some of it has melted.

 Ice jams are common at this location and can cause rapid
 rises that we are not able to forecast.

* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Wednesday night and continue
  to rise to near 15.5 feet by Saturday evening.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 15.0 feet, Storm sewer drains...Armory.

&&

Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue
(month/day)         03/29  03/30  03/31  04/01  04/02  04/03  04/04
  Grafton           11.8   13.3   14.9   15.5   15.0   14.2   13.3
LAT...LON 4850 9749 4839 9750 4842 9716 4851 9715


$$

NDC019-067-301310-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0016.170330T2136Z-000000T0000Z/
/WLHN8.1.SM.170330T2136Z.170404T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
811 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Walhalla...on the Pembina River.
* from Thursday afternoon until further notice...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  7:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 0.6 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 11.0 feet.

 Observed and forecast melt rates are progressing a little
 faster than expected, so these forecasts are rising more
 rapidly than yesterday`s.  The crest forecast magnitude
 remains unchanged, but it is forecast to occur sooner now.

 Crest 13-14 ft (8000-10,000 cfs) around April 6. The crest
 coming from Windygates will be driving the crest here at
 Walhalla.

* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by Thursday afternoon and
  continue to rise to near 13.2 feet by Tuesday early afternoon.
  additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 14.5 feet, Flooding occurs along the left
  bank.

&&

Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue
(month/day)         03/29  03/30  03/31  04/01  04/02  04/03  04/04
  Walhalla           9.1   11.2   12.3   12.5   12.8   13.0   13.2
LAT...LON 4900 9825 4887 9808 4884 9787 4892 9764 4900 9771


$$

NDC067-301310-
/O.EXT.KFGF.FL.W.0017.170331T0651Z-000000T0000Z/
/NCEN8.3.SM.170331T0651Z.170403T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
811 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

The Flood Warning continues for...
* ...Neche...on the Pembina River.
* from late Thursday night until further notice...or until the
  warning is cancelled.
* At  6:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.5 feet.
* Major Flood Stage is 20.5 feet.
* Forecast...rise above Flood Stage by early Friday morning and
  continue to rise to near 21.3 feet by Monday early afternoon.
  additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact Statement(s) - At 21.4 feet, 2006 Spring Flood Crest.

&&

Daily 7pm CDT/6pm CST forecast stage in feet:

 Date                Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat    Sun    Mon    Tue
(month/day)         03/29  03/30  03/31  04/01  04/02  04/03  04/04
  Neche             15.1   17.3   19.8   21.0   21.2   21.3   21.3
LAT...LON 4900 9771 4891 9764 4889 9722 4900 9723


$$




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