Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 281936
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
336 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...TRENDING WETTER INTO THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIETER WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-290830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
336 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54...EXCEPT 56-61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 11 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE
                    COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (530).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.39 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS UNTIL
                    2000. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AFTER 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 12 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.13-0.50 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.26-0.36 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-290830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
336 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 12 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.26 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......16 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.26 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1150).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.23-0.34 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-290830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
336 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 0200 UNTIL 0500...THEN RAIN LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 63-68 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.45 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 11 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.64 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT AROUND 71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (900).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.29-0.37 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-290830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
336 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 0200 UNTIL 0500...THEN RAIN LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 2 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL
                    0800...THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1100...THEN RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.36 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.40 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE
                    OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (950).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.37 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-290830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
336 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1100...THEN RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (470).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.26 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.24 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........66-71 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.27-0.37 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG





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