Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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052
FNUS53 KAPX 231932
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
332 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...Rain and wind through Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...A strengthening fall storm that will move north across
Lower Michigan Tuesday will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to
northern Michigan through Tuesday night.  Additional rainfall (not
including the 1 to 2+ inches that has already fallen since Sunday
afternoon) through Tuesday night of 2 to 3 inches is expected.  Winds
will increase on Tuesday as well...with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
inland from Lake Michigan...and gusts over 40 mph along the Lake
Michigan shoreline counties.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-240830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
332 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers until
                    2400, then rain.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (220).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........1.14-1.43 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain.
Max Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........80-85 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1110).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 30 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.13-0.72 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain until 2400, then
                    periods of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 20 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (770).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 24 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.22-0.44 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........66-71 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier...except 18 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1160).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.12 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-240830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
332 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers until
                    2400, then rain.
Min Temperature.....44-49...except 55-60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (140).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 15 mph shifting to the west
                    around 18 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.92-1.42 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain likely.
Max Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........71-76 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1140).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 27 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.10-0.26 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain likely until
                    2400, then numerous rain showers.
Min Temperature.....36-41...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (620).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.15-0.27 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Numerous rain showers
                    until 1200, then chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1150).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-240830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
332 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers until
                    2400, then rain.
Min Temperature.....43-48...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 40 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (240).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 21 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 33 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........1.00-1.51 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain.
Max Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1110).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 27 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.31-0.91 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain until 2400, then
                    periods of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....36-41...except 44-49 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 20 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (910).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 30 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.23-0.44 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........63-68 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1080).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.02-0.15 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-240830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
332 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers until
                    2400, then rain.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (220).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.94-1.53 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain.
Max Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........80-85 percent...except 89-94 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (950).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.25-0.84 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain until 2400, then
                    numerous rain showers.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (870).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 30 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.20-0.36 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers until 1200, then chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........62-67 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (900).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-240830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
332 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain showers until
                    2400, then rain.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph shifting to the west
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 35 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (200).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........1.11-1.55 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain.
Max Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (940).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.17-0.38 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain until 2400, then
                    numerous rain showers.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (590).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.13-0.39 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and scattered snow showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1080).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.

$$





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