Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 152002
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT AND HOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION
FREE AND COOL CONDITIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AGAIN FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 40-45
PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
OUR OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-160830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 57-62 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (960).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49...EXCEPT AROUND 51 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-160830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42...EXCEPT 45-50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (750).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47...EXCEPT 49-54 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-160830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43...EXCEPT AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 21 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 50-55 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-160830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2300. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT...EXCEPT 84-89 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 55-60 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......33 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (860).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-160830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
402 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). PERIODS OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......31 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (680).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PATCHY FROST. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MG





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