Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 190648
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
248 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...Warming into next work week...

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure continues to press east of the
region, finally breaking the cloud cover into partly sunny skies and
warmer temperatures today. Could even see isolated showers across
northeast lower where afternoon lake breeze convergence is
anticipated. Maybe a shower rolling into northwest lower this
evening. Higher pressure works across northern Michigan tonight
while a cold front starts working our way early next work week. No
fire weather concerns foreseen.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-192015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
248 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 0900.
Max Temperature.....73-78...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent drier...except 14 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1080).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers after 2200 until 0100. Patchy fog after
                    0200 until 0400.
Min Temperature.....58-63...except 65-70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (990).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-192015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
248 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 0800. slight chance of rain
                    showers after 1300 until 1700. slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 1400 until 1700.
Max Temperature.....73-78...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1170).
Mixing Height.......6900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1010).
Mixing Height.......6900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-192015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
248 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 0800.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer...except 5 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......26 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1010).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers after 2200 until 2400. Patchy fog after
                    0100.
Min Temperature.....59-64...except 66-71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (880).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-192015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
248 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800. Slight chance of rain showers until 0800.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1040).
Mixing Height.......6700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 2300 until 2400. Patchy fog
                    after 0200.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 73-78 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 62-67 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (890).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-192015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
248 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 0800. slight chance of rain
                    showers after 1300 until 1700. slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 1400 until 1700.
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1270).
Mixing Height.......7800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after
                    0100.
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog until 0800.
Max Temperature.....80-85.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (990).
Mixing Height.......7100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD



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