Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 291940
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
340 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON`S...

.DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS IS IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LAKES BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BIGGEST IMPACT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HURON NATIONAL FOREST AREA WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

RH VALUES WILL DROP SUBSTANTIALLY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS...LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED
CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT HOPE FOR ANY
RAIN ARRIVES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT
JUST MINIMAL AMOUNTS.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-300815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
340 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1880).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 66-71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 6
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-300815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
340 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 66-71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 30 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1910).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 21 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 6
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1670).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-300815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
340 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1880).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 6
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1750).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-300815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
340 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1880).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 6 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1890).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-300815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
340 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2030).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 21 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 6 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1850).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MSB



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