Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS52 KILM 200917
FWFILM

Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
517 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A stalled front just inland from the coast will weaken and
transition to a dissipating trof of low pressure by Monday.
High pressure will expand across the area from the western
Atlantic Monday thru Wednesday, continuing the heat and high
humidity. A modest cold front will approach from the northwest
late Wednesday night. Latest weather models progress this cold
front across the area early Thursday, and off the Carolina
coasts and well offshore by late Thursday. Canadian high
pressure will ridge across the area Friday thru Saturday
bringing with it a temporary reprieve from the summer heat and
high humidity.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight...Moderate to High.

NCZ105>110-210130-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate, Boiling Spring Lakes,
Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach, Southport,
and Sunset Beach
517 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Mon

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Precip chc (%)        30           20           30
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   3            2            3
Min/Max Temp          91           73           89
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    LGT/VAR      S  4         LGT/VAR
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SE  5        LGT/VAR      SE  6
Precip amount         0.06         0.02         0.07
Precip duration       1            1            1
Inversion             81/1000      1900         80/1000
Dispersion                         Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        54           99           63
DSI                   3                         2
Haines Index          3            3            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   5300                      4500
Transport wnd (mph)   SE  5                     SE  9
Ventilation rate      26500                     40500
ADI early             12 poor      17 Gen poor  14 Gen poor
ADI late              19 Gen poor  2 Very poor  32 Fair
Max LVORI early       9            5            9
Max LVORI late        3            9            3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 98 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 64 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 92 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 66 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 96 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 76 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 64 percent.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 80 percent.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 53 percent.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

$$

NCZ096-099-210130-
Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Elizabethtown, Bladenboro, Whiteville,
Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
517 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Mon

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Precip chc (%)        20           0            20
Precip type           Tstms        None         Tstms
LAL                   2            1            2
Min/Max Temp          92           74           90
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    LGT/VAR      SE  4        LGT/VAR
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     E  4         LGT/VAR      SE  4
Precip amount         0.01         0.00         0.04
Precip duration       1                         1
Inversion             80/1000      1900         80/1000
Dispersion                         Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        50           99           57
DSI                   3                         2
Haines Index          3            3            4
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   5840                      5140
Transport wnd (mph)   SE  3                     SE  8
Ventilation rate      17520                     41120
ADI early             9 poor       15 Gen poor  18 Gen poor
ADI late              15 Gen poor  1 Very poor  38 Fair
Max LVORI early       10           6            10
Max LVORI late        3            10           3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH
100 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 58 percent. South winds
5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 94 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 61 percent. Southwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 75 percent. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 59 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 82 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

NCZ087-210130-
Robeson-
Including the city of Lumberton
517 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Mon

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Precip chc (%)        0            0            20
Precip type           None         None         Tstms
LAL                   1            1            2
Min/Max Temp          94           73           91
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    LGT/VAR      SE  5        LGT/VAR
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     E  5         LGT/VAR      SE  5
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.01
Precip duration                                 1
Inversion             79/1000      1900         80/1000
Dispersion                         Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        45           99           53
DSI                   3                         3
Haines Index          3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   6050                      5540
Transport wnd (mph)   SE  3                     SE  9
Ventilation rate      18150                     49860
ADI early             6 Very poor  17 Gen poor  24 Fair
ADI late              20 Gen poor  2 Very poor  44 Gen good
Max LVORI early       10           5            10
Max LVORI late        2            10           3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH
100 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 55 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 93 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 54 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Not as warm. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
73 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 92 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 55 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 82 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 50 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ053>056-210130-
Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-
Including the cities of Conway, Red Hill, Myrtle Beach, Socastee,
North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews, Georgetown,
and Murrells Inlet
517 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Mon

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Precip chc (%)        30           20           40
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
LAL                   3            2            3
Min/Max Temp          92           74           90
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    LGT/VAR      S  5         LGT/VAR
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SE  6        LGT/VAR      SE  6
Precip amount         0.06         0.03         0.10
Precip duration       1            1            2
Inversion             82/1000      1900         81/1000
Dispersion                         Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        53           97           63
DSI                   3                         2
Haines Index          4            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   5820                      4360
Transport wnd (mph)   SE  5                     SE 12
Ventilation rate      29100                     52320
ADI early             14 Gen poor  20 Gen poor  19 Gen poor
ADI late              20 Gen poor  3 Very poor  39 Fair
Max LVORI early       8            5            8
Max LVORI late        3            8            3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 97 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 63 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 93 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 65 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 70s. Maximum RH 92 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 73 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 67 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 84 percent.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 53 percent.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

$$

SCZ032-033-039-210130-
Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Florence, Marion, Mullins, and Kingstree
517 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Mon

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Precip chc (%)        20           0            30
Precip type           Tstms        None         Tstms
LAL                   2            1            3
Min/Max Temp          94           74           91
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    LGT/VAR      SE  5        LGT/VAR
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     SE  5        LGT/VAR      SE  5
Precip amount         0.01         0.00         0.08
Precip duration       1                         1
Inversion             81/1000      1900         81/1000
Dispersion                         Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        47           100          58
DSI                   3                         2
Haines Index          4            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   6010                      5070
Transport wnd (mph)   SE  3                     SE  9
Ventilation rate      18030                     45630
ADI early             14 Gen poor  16 Gen poor  20 Gen poor
ADI late              15 Gen poor  2 Very poor  34 Fair
Max LVORI early       9            5            10
Max LVORI late        2            10           3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 99 percent. South
winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 57 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 94 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 57 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 94 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 72 percent. Chance of precipitation
60 percent. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 61 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 85 percent. Northeast
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 49 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

SCZ017-023-024-210130-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, North Hartsville, and Dillon
517 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Mon

Cloud amount          PCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Precip chc (%)        0            0            20
Precip type           None         None         Tstms
LAL                   1            1            2
Min/Max Temp          95           73           91
Wnd20ft/early(mph)    LGT/VAR      SE  5        LGT/VAR
Wnd20ft/late(mph)     E  5         LGT/VAR      SE  5
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.01
Precip duration                                 1
Inversion             80/1000      1900         80/1000
Dispersion                         Very Poor
Max/Min RH (%)        43           98           51
DSI                   3                         3
Haines Index          3            3            3
Mixing hgt (ft-AGL)   6110                      5590
Transport wnd (mph)   SE  3                     SE  8
Ventilation rate      18330                     44720
ADI early             15 Gen poor  17 Gen poor  24 Fair
ADI late              20 Gen poor  2 Very poor  40 Fair
Max LVORI early       9            5            9
Max LVORI late        2            9            2

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH
98 percent. South winds around 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 53 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 91 percent. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 90s. Minimum RH 49 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Maximum RH 95 percent.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Not as warm. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
69 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum RH 92 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 54 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 82 percent.
Northeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 47 percent.
Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures below normal.  Precipitation near normal.

$$


     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE         BURN CATEGORY  VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
    0 TO 17249                 1             0 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499                 2         33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749                 3         45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999                 4         60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER               5        112000 OR GREATER

     SC USERS                               NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND    DISPERSION    FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
                         STAGNANT       NEAR CALM
CALM                     VERY POOR      2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH                 POOR         5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH                 FAIR         9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH                GOOD         GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE           EXCELLENT

ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.

$$

dch



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