Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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131
FNUS73 KABR 271243
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Buss Waterfowl Production Area Rx...State of South Dakota
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
743 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service in Aberdeen SD.

.DISCUSSION...
There will be scattered to broken coverage of clouds at the burn site this
morning and probably right on through about mid-day. The cloudiness
may hamper the rate at which daytime sunshine and heating can mix out this
morning`s low level thermal inversion. Until a dent can be made in the
inversion (probably late morning into the early afternoon hours), generally
light southwest to west winds can be expected. But, once the inversion is
fully mixed out, expect winds to settle around 250 to 270 direction,
becoming breezy (15 to 25 mph). If an afternoon shower or weak thunderstorm
can get going today, it will be capable of producing some blustery, chaotic
winds. So, that`s also something to keep in mind. Much stronger northwest
winds are expected on Sunday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent cloud). A slight
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....71-76.
Min humidity........27-32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1500, then 2.
Mixing height.......100-600 ft agl, increasing to 9200-10000 ft
                    agl.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor, increasing to excellent (154300-186400).
Haines Index........5 (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Sky (%).........77  73  69  66  62  59  58  57  56  55  53
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............57  60  62  66  68  69  71  72  73  73  72
RH..............64  55  50  43  40  37  34  32  30  30  31
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   10  12  13  13  14  15  16  16  16  15
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  20  20  20  25  25  25  20

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent cloud), then
                    becoming partly cloudy (40-50 percent cloud). A
                    chance of thunderstorms early in the evening. A
                    chance of showers early in the evening, then a
                    slight chance of showers late in the evening.
Min temperature.....46-51.
Max humidity........83-88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2200, then 1.
Mixing height.......5000-5500 ft agl, decreasing to 100-600 ft agl
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (114800-121100), decreasing to poor
                    (4400-4700) in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........5 (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
Sky (%).........52  51  50  49  49  48  47  45  42  40  39  37
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC
Temp............71  67  63  60  57  55  54  53  52  51  50  49
RH..............34  40  48  57  66  73  79  82  84  85  86  87
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..14  13  13  12  12  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.20  20  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent cloud). A slight
                    chance of showers in the afternoon. A slight
                    chance of thunderstorms late.
Max temperature.....67-72.
Min humidity........35-40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 20 mph with gusts up to
                    30 mph, increasing to 22 to 23 mph with gusts
                    up to 30 mph late in the morning. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1600, then 2.
Mixing height.......400-900 ft agl, increasing to 8800-9300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 23 to 32 mph, increasing to 33 to 38
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12400-12800), increasing to excellent
                    (237100-286500).
Haines Index........5 (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Sky (%).........35  37  39  41  42  44  46  47  48  49  51  52
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                    SCH SCH SCH
Temp............50  53  57  61  64  66  68  69  69  69  69  68
RH..............82  73  62  53  48  45  42  40  38  37  38  39
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..12  14  15  17  20  22  23  23  23  23  23  23
20 FT wind gust.15  20  20  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30

$$
Forecaster...Dorn
Requested by...Drew Ellis
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1710177.0/ABR
.EMAIL drew_ellis@fws.gov



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