Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 290503
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Malvern hill rx...NPS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
103 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on March 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Low stratus develops late tonight and will scatter out Wednesday morning
as high pressure slowly builds in from the north. The high retreats to
the northeast on Thursday as the next low pressure system approaches
from the west. A strong system is expected to impact the region on Friday
with heavy rain and afternoon thunderstorms possible.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-85 percent)...then becoming
                    sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 10 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1600 ft AGL...increasing to 2300-3700 ft
                    AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............72  68  56  44  32  26  21  15  15  14  14
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................55  54  56  59  61  63  64  66  67  68  67
RH..................80  83  74  64  58  52  48  43  40  36  36
20 FT wind dir......N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd......4   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.....10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......0.3 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7
Transp wind dir.....NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.....17  17  17  16  15  14  12  10  9   9   8
LVORI...............4   5   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................14  10  19  37  49  48  43  38  35  35  35
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5
VRate kt-ft/1000....4   4   14  23  30  31  31  30  28  27  26

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......1100-2800 ft AGL...decreasing to 300-800 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............14  15  15  19  23  27  31  34  38  40  41  43
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................64  61  58  55  53  50  49  47  46  45  44  43
RH..................41  46  53  59  61  68  68  71  71  70  68  67
20 FT wind dir......N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd......5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......2.8 2.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....N   N   N   NE  NE  E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.....7   6   6   6   6   7   10  13  15  15  14  13
LVORI...............1   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.................31  4   4   4   3   4   4   6   7   7   9   8
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........5   5   5   5   5   5   4   3   2   2   2   2
VRate kt-ft/1000....18  11  6   4   3   2   2   3   3   3   3   3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the
                    morning...becoming light.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL...increasing to 2300-3000 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............44     46     64     76     79     78
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................42     43     48     53     55     57
RH..................70     67     54     44     45     42
20 ft wind..........NE 4   NE 5   NE 4   NE 3   E 2    E 3
20 ft wind gust.....10     10     10     5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    1500   2300   2800   2900
Transport wind......NE 13  NE 12  NE 8   E 6    E 6    SE 6
LVORI...............3      3      2      2      2      2
ADI.................8      9      13     13     17     13
Chc of pcpn (%).....0      0      0      0      10     10
Haines index........2      2      2      2      2      2
VRate kt-ft/1000....3      3      11     12     14     14

$$
Forecaster...MONTEFUSCO
Requested by...Matt way
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705396.0/AKQ
.EMAIL matt_way@nps.gov



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