Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 231501 CCA
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Gun Barrel Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
759 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on February 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Moist and unstable air will stream northeast across
western Colorado this morning and eventually over north central and
northeast Colorado during the afternoon and evening hours today.
The moisture is associated with a small upper level weather
disturbance, which its core is forecast to track east along the
Colorado-Wyoming border during the next 18 hours. In the area of the
burn, mostly clear skies early this morning will steadily fill in
through the late morning and afternoon, with scattered snow showers
expected to form in the area after 1500 MST. Showers are expected to
end in the vicinity of the burn site by around 23z this evening.
Snow accumulation should be light, with most of the accumulation
occurring north and west of the burn with passage of the weather
disturbance this evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(30-50%) until 1400, then mostly
                    cloudy. Chance of snow showers after 1500.
CWR.................0 percent until 1300, increasing to 45 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 34.
Min humidity........33%.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6-13 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0900, then 3500-4500 ft
                    AGL until 1100, then 6900-7900 ft AGL until
                    1600, then 4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10-20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then fair until 1100, then
                    good until 1200, then very good until 1500,
                    then good until 1700, then fair.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy until 2300, then mostly cloudy until 0200,
                    partly cloudy(30-40%). Good chance of snow showers,
                    mainly in the evening.
CWR.................50 percent decreasing to 10 percent after
                    midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 9 above.
Max humidity........92-97%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5-6 mph until 2000. northwest
after                     2300. Mixing height.......1500-2500 ft AGL
until 2000, then 1000-2000 ft                     AGL. Transport
winds.....South 10-15 mph until 2300, then west. Smoke
dispersal.....Poor.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(35-45%) until 0700, then mostly
                    sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 28.
Min humidity........32%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7-13 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......3100-4100 ft AGL until 1000, then 6100-7100 ft
                    AGL until 1600, then 4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20-30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0600, then fair until 0800, then
                    good until 0900, then very good until 1100,
                    then excellent until 1500, then very good until
                    1600, then good.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows around 7. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds
5-12 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 11. Highs in the lower 40s. Southwest
winds 5-13 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 18. Highs in the mid 40s. Southwest
winds 5-6 mph.


Fire Weather Table for Gun Barrel Piles.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

02/23-08 39  0  0 18 56 SSW  6  7 2 1          873  SW  9  7338 P
02/23-09 40  1  0 20 51 SSW  7  8 2 1         2937  SW 12 29846 P
02/23-10 40  1  0 23 49 SSW  7  7 2 1         5002  SW 14 59588  F
02/23-11 41  1  0 28 40   S  8 13 2 1         7067  SW 16 96565   G
02/23-12 48  4  1 32 35   S  9 15 2 1         7558 SSW 17111583    V
02/23-13 56  7  1 34 33 SSW 10 16 2 1         8049 SSW 18127681    V
02/23-14 63 10  2 34 33 SSW 10 16 3 1         8540 SSW 20144858    V
02/23-15 71 14  3 33 35   S  9 16 3 1         6513   S 17 97522   G
02/23-16 78 17  3 30 41   S  8 14 3 1         4486 SSE 15 58247  F
02/23-17 86 42 19 27 48   S  7  7 3 1         2458 SSE 13 27033 P
02/23-18 84 42 19 24 56   S  6  6 3 1         1971 SSE 12 19266 P
02/23-19 83 42 19 21 64 SSW  5  5 3 1         1484   S 10 12690 P
02/23-20 81 42 19 18 74 SSW  3  3 3 1          996   S  8  7305 P
02/23-21 80 42 19 15 83 WSW  3  3 3 1          998 SSW  8  6788 P
02/23-22 78 42 19 12 93  NW  3  3 3 1          999  SW  7  6270 P
02/23-23 77 31 10 10100   N  5  5 3 1         1000 WSW  7  5750 P
02/24-00 72 31 10 10100   N  5  5 3 1         1119   W  6  5502 P
02/24-01 67 31 10 10100  NW  6  6 3 1         1237   W  5  5057 P
02/24-02 62 31 10 10100 WNW  6  6 3 1         1355   W  3  4416 P
02/24-03 56 31 10 10 97 WNW  6  6 3 1         1690   W  8 11227 P
02/24-04 51 31 10  9 97 WNW  6  6 3 1         2024 WNW 12 20302 P
02/24-05 46  5  1  9 91   W  6  6 3 1         2358  NW 15 31641 P
02/24-06 37  5  1  9 83   W  7  7 3 1         2637  NW 18 42922  F
02/24-07 29  5  1 10 73   W  8 13 3 1         2915 WNW 22 55798  F
02/24-08 20  5  1 12 63   W  9 15 3 1         3194 WNW 25 70768   G
02/24-09 18  5  1 14 58   W 12 18 3 1         4757 WNW 26108997    V
02/24-10 16  5  1 18 49   W 13 21 3 1         6320   W 28149586    V
02/24-11 14  2  0 21 43   W 14 22 3 1         7883   W 28192537     E
02/24-12 15  2  0 24 38 WNW 15 24 3 1         7509   W 28183761     E
02/24-13 18  2  0 27 33 WNW 15 24 3 1         7135   W 29174949     E
02/24-14 19  2  0 28 32 WNW 14 22 3 1         6760   W 29166100     E
02/24-15 20  2  0 27 33 WNW 12 18 3 1         5629   W 25125285    V
02/24-16 22  2  0 25 34 WNW  9 15 3 1         4497   W 23 89703   G
02/24-17 23  2  0 23 38 WNW  8 13 3 1         3366   W 21 59352  F
02/24-18 26  2  0 20 41   W  7  7 3 1         2749   W 17 40807  F
02/24-19 33  2  0 18 44 WSW  7  7 2 1         2132   W 14 25703 P
02/24-20 36  2  0 15 48 WSW  6  6 2 1         1515   W 10 14040 P
02/24-21 35  2  0 12 55 WSW  6  6 2 1         1452   W 12 15230 P
02/24-22 32  2  0 10 57 WSW  7  7 2 1         1390 WSW 14 16267 P
02/24-23 30  0  0  8 63 WSW  8 13 2 1         1327 WSW 15 17151 P
02/25-00 32  0  0  8 63 WSW  8 13 2 1         1245   W 15 15759 P
02/25-01 36  0  0  8 63 WSW  7  7 3 1         1164   W 14 14412 P
02/25-02 38  0  0  8 63   W  7  7 3 1         1082   W 14 13109 P
02/25-03 38  0  0  8 63   W  8 13 3 1         1217   W 15 15721 P
02/25-04 37  0  0  7 69 WSW  8 13 3 1         1352   W 16 18549 P
02/25-05 37  3  1  7 69 WSW  8 13 3 1         1487 WNW 17 21595 P
02/25-06 38  3  1  8 66   W  8 13 3 1         1721 WNW 18 26816 P
02/25-07 39  3  1  9 66   W  9 15 3 1         1956 WNW 20 32532 P
02/25-08 39  3  1 12 58   W  9 15 3 1         2191 WNW 21 38742 P
02/25-09 38  3  1 15 50   W 10 16 3 1         4221 WNW 22 78764   G
02/25-10 37  3  1 19 44   W 10 16 2 1         6250 WNW 23122758    V
02/25-11 36  1  0 24 36 WNW 12 18 2 1         8280   W 24170721     E
02/25-12 32  1  0 28 30 WNW 12 18 2 1         7456   W 23150178     E
02/25-13 23  1  0 31 28 WNW 12 18 2 1         6633 WNW 23130422    V
02/25-14 18  1  0 33 26 WNW 12 18 2 1         5809 WNW 22111452    V
02/25-15 18  1  0 33 26   W 12 18 2 1         4687   W 22 87448   G
02/25-16 19  1  0 31 27   W 12 18 2 1         3565   W 21 64628   G
02/25-17 19  0  0 27 32   W 10 16 2 1         2443   W 21 42994  F
02/25-18 17  0  0 24 36   W 10 16 3 1         1922   W 21 33667 P
02/25-19 15  0  0 21 39 WSW 10 16 4 1         1401   W 20 24429 P
02/25-20 14  0  0 18 44 WSW 10 16 4 1          881   W 20 15279 P
02/25-21 12  0  0 16 46 WSW 10 16 5 1          888   W 21 15745 P
02/25-22 10  0  0 14 50 WSW 10 16 5 1          895 WSW 21 16217 P
02/25-23  8  0  0 13 50 WSW 10 16 5 1          903 WSW 21 16695 P
02/26-00  8  0  0 13 50 WSW 10 16 5 1          940 WSW 23 18687 P
02/26-01  7  0  0 13 50 WSW 12 18 4 1          978 WSW 24 20784 P
02/26-02  7  0  0 12 52 WSW 12 18 4 1         1015 WSW 26 22984 P
02/26-03  8  0  0 11 55 WSW 12 18 4 1         1023 WSW 25 22817 P
02/26-04  9  0  0 11 52 WSW 10 16 4 1         1030 WSW 25 22645 P
02/26-05  9  0  0 12 50 WSW 10 16 4 1         1038 WSW 25 22468 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER...NWS Boulder
REQUESTED BY...Craig Brown
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802428.0/BOU


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