Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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546
FNUS71 KBUF 271124
FWSBUF

Spot Forecast for Rush-Oak Openings Rx II...NYS Forest Rangers
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
724 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Summer like conditions are expected at the fire site today as
temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon.
Moisture will increase ahead of an approaching cold front today,
which will keep RH values above about 35 percent during peak
heating this afternoon. South winds will be prevalent today with
some peak wind gusts to around 25 mph expected this afternoon.
Just outside of the forecast window, thunderstorms are expected to
approach the fire site by about 6 to 8 pm with strong to damaging
erratic wind gusts possible. A cold front will then follow
overnight shifting winds to the west.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25 percent)...then becoming
                    cloudy late (90 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 8 to 14 mph.
20 foot wind........South winds 8 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 3000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 21 mph.
Dispersion index....Max 49 (average).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.01 inches.

TIME (EDT)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............9   10  10  30  28  20  13  10  44  92
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp................64  70  74  78  81  83  86  87  87  85
RH..................75  64  56  50  47  42  39  37  36  38
20 ft wind dir......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd......8   9   10  9   10  12  12  12  13  14
20 ft wind gust.....15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  25  25
Eye lvl wnd dir.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.....5   5   6   5   6   7   7   7   8   8
Eye lvl wnd gst.....15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  25  25
Mix hgt (kft).......0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.7
Transp wind dir.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....18  18  17  16  16  17  18  20  20  21
Dispersion idx......8   11  14  18  25  34  42  47  49  48
Haines index........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5

$$

Forecaster...CHURCH
Requested by...Ranger TJ Carpenter
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707842.0/BUF
.EMAIL timothy.carpenter@dec.ny.gov



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