Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FNUS71 KBUF 281058
FWSBUF

SPOT FORECAST FOR OAK OPENINGS RX FIRE...NYS FOREST RANGERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
658 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0710 EDT ON APRIL 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL RETREAT
TO THE NORTH TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO PENNSYLVANIA
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING THAT WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE BREEZE KICKS IN.
WINDS WILL PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE LAKE BREEZE DIMINISHES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5
                    TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSION....MAX 34 (FAIR).

TIME (EDT)          7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............70  71  68  62  59  63  70  74  75  77  78
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................33  35  39  43  46  48  50  51  51  50  49
RH..................68  66  57  49  44  40  39  38  39  40  42
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD......4   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SMK DISPERSION......7   15  23  31  34  33  31  27  23  19  16

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.
MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSION....MIN 1 (POOR).

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............80  83  84  83  82  81  80  79  78  80  85  87
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................47  46  45  44  43  42  42  41  41  40  39  38
RH..................43  46  49  51  54  58  60  63  65  67  72  76
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD......5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SMK DISPERSION......13  10  7   4   2   1   2   3   4   3   2   1

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5
                    TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 2 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 12
                    MPH LATE.
SMOKE DISPERSION....MAX 26 (FAIR).

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............84  78  75  77  79  80  82  82  82  81  77  76
WEATHER COV.........        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................38  39  40  43  47  49  51  52  53  53  54  53
RH..................77  76  75  69  63  60  57  55  55  53  52  52
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD......2   3   3   4   4   5   6   7   8   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   10  15  15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SMK DISPERSION......1   1   3   6   11  17  21  23  25  26  24  18

$$

FORECASTER...WOOD
REQUESTED BY...RANGER TJ CARPENTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160428.OAKOP.01/BUF



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