Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FNUS72 KCAE 191210
FWSCAE

Spot Forecast for FTG_TA21...Department Of Defense
National Weather Service Columbia SC
810 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Positive or negative feedback including observations taken at
the burn site would be greatly appreciated. You can use the same
webpage where you requested the spot forecast for this. You may
also call our office if you have questions or concerns.

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will be approaching the region from the
west during the afternoon hours, but is expected to remain well west
of burn site until late tonight.  This morning, a low-level inversion
is forecast to remain across the area until about 10 am.  Mixing heights
as the inversion breaks will be around 1000 ft, and will rise to around
2000 ft by 11 am, then to around 5000 ft by 1 pm. Wind direction for both
surface and transport winds will be out of the south to southwest through
the day.  Surface wind speeds this morning between 5 and 10 mph, with a few
higher gusts by this afternoon.  Transport wind speeds up to 15 mph through
the day.  With a good amount of low-level moisture in place across the
region, afternoon rh values will drop to between 42-48 percent at the burn
site.  Heat index values in the upper 90s during peak heating.  There will
be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area late
this afternoon and into much of this evening.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    morning. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1100, then 9-15 strikes until
                    1500, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming south 5 to 9
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height.......1300-2900 ft AGL, increasing to 5800-5900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
LVORI...............3.
Max ADI.............66.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........34  39  44  48  53  55  57  60  63
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  20  20  20  20  30  30  40
Temp............79  82  85  87  89  90  91  91  91
RH..............74  67  61  57  54  52  50  50  50
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind dir..210 220 220 220 210 200 200 190 190
20 FT wind spd..4   5   6   6   7   8   8   9   9
20 FT wind gust.5   10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.6 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.9
Trasnp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd.9   10  13  13  13  14  14  15  15
LVORI...........4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............16  27  40  46  51  44  60  66  49
LAL.............3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). A chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 0100, then 9-15 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph in the evening, becoming
                    light and variable. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2700-4300 ft AGL, decreasing to 300-1100 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph.
LVORI...............5.
Min ADI.............3.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........66     70     76     79     82     81
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40     40     40     30     20     20
Temp............90     85     80     77     74     73
RH..............52     63     77     85     89     94
20 ft wind......S 8    S 7    S 6    S 4    S 4    S 3
20 ft wind gust.15     15     10     10     10     5
Mix hgt (ft)....4300   1100   700    500    300    300
Transport wind..S 15   S 15   S 13   SW 10  SW 9   SW 8
LVORI...........1      3      4      4      5      6
ADI.............58     10     8      7      6      4
LAL.............4      4      4      4      3      3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    morning, then a chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 0800, then 16-25 strikes
                    until 1400, then >25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming south around
                    5 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500-2100 ft AGL, increasing to 2500-3000 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 8 mph.
LVORI...............5.
Max ADI.............26.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........78        77        80        86
Weather cov.....S CHC     CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).20        30        40        60
Temp............72        76        81        83
RH..............97        86        70        65
20 FT wind......S 3G5     SW 3G5    SW 4G5    SW 5G10
Mix hgt (ft)....500       1000      2100      3000
Transport wind..SW 6      SW 5      SW 7      S 7
LVORI...........8         4         3         2
ADI.............3         6         18        22
LAL.............3         4         4         5

$$
Forecaster...Liscinsky
Requested by...Allen Braswell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1711263.0/CAE



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