Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 242055
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR DEN FIRE...DELAWARE IMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
455 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1628 EDT ON APRIL 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER...COMBINED WITH DRY FINE FUELS...WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SHOULD LIMIT THE WILDFIRE THREAT.

THE WIND WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...BRINGING
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.
MAX HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5
                    TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-2000 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST UNTIL
                    EARLY MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6 TO 13 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............45  47  56  57  59  61  60  60  59  61  64  67
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................57  55  53  49  47  45  43  42  41  41  41  41
RH..................22  24  27  33  38  44  51  57  64  64  65  66
20 FT WIND DIR......N   N   N   NE  E   E   E   E   NE  E   E   SE
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   6   6   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.4 3.8 2.9 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....5   5   5   5   3   5   7   10  13  10  7   6
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........6   6   6   6   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 1900-3500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 17 MPH...INCREASING TO 20 TO 26
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............70  73  74  76  81  86  91  96  98  98  97  96
WEATHER COV.........        ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT WID WID WID WID
WEATHER TYPE........        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................41  41  43  46  49  53  55  57  59  60  62  60
RH..................68  70  72  69  66  62  62  62  62  59  56  62
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......5   5   5   6   6   7   9   10  10  12  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....                10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.1 2.5 1.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8   13  17  20  21  22  24  25  26  26  24  22
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...FITZGERALD
REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN HAMAKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140424.BEARD.02/CTP



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