Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FNUS73 KDLH 201716
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Low bush Presque Isle Tombolo...NPS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on October 20.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast...
please call the National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

This will be challenging forecast since the location will be out
into the Lake, and modeling and data is poorer over the Lake.
Please understand that confidence in the forecast is low, and do
not hesitate to provide to request us for updates.

It will be a sunny and relatively warm day. Breezy southerly flow
will develop this afternoon. We expect the air to cool off and
get more humid as it translates from the mainland to Stockton
Island, but how much is the challenging question.

Tomorrow will be much more humid, and showers and storms are
possible during the day, and then likely late Saturday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South-southwest winds around 5 mph
                    increasing to around 10 mph late in
                    the afternoon. Gusts up to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (10000-19300 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  66  68  69  68  66
RH..............65  62  60  58  55  58
20 FT wind dir..SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   10  10
20 FT wind gust.12  12  13  15  16  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW
Transp wind spd.15  20  20  20  20  20
SDspl kt-ft/100010  19  16  12  8   8

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. A
                    slight chance of showers early in the morning.
                    A chance of showers early in the morning.
                    Chance of showers 30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 10 mph increasing to around
                    15 mph late in the evening, then decreasing to
                    around 10 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 26
                    mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7500 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....                                   S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............64     63     60     60     59     58
RH..............60     62     65     72     72     80
20 ft wind......S 10   S 10   S 15   S 10   S 10   S 10
20 ft wind gust.17     21     26     25     22     19
Mix hgt (ft)....400    300    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..S 25   S 25   S 30   S 30   S 25   S 25
SDspl kt-ft/10007      7      6      7      7      6

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers through the
                    day. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon,
                    then scattered thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 10 mph with gusts to around
                    20 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 25 to 35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (6000-25900 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good (33500-50700 knot-ft) late in the morning.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Temp............58     58     59     61     64     64
RH..............82     83     82     79     77     78
20 ft wind......S 10   S 10   S 10   S 10   S 10   S 10
20 ft wind gust.19     21     21     20     19     18
Mix hgt (ft)....300    500    1000   1500   1700   1700
Transport wind..S 25   S 25   S 30   S 30   S 35   S 35
SDspl kt-ft/10006      12     26     42     51     50

$$
Forecaster...Geoff
Requested by...Dave Pergolski
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717626.0/DLH
.EMAIL David.pergolski@bia.gov



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