Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 231815
FWSEPZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR RED CABIN RX...BIA-MESCALERO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX
1115 AM MST MON JAN 23 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON JANUARY 23.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. LATER THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO 40S TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND MOISTURE. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 9000 FT BUT THEN
LOWER TO AROUND 6000 FT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
END AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME WINDY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG ANY EAST SLOPE TERRAIN. EXPECT WINDS BETWEEN 25-30
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40-50 MPH RANGE TOMORROW.

&&

...PERCENTAGES SHOWN IN THE SKY/WEATHER PORTION REFLECT
SKY COVER AMOUNT...

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 21 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 35 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 21 KNOTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (43200 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (MST)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM
SKY (%).........30     30     30
WEATHER COV.....NONE   NONE   NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........NONE   NONE   NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
TEMP............43     44     45
RH..............57     57     58
20 FT WIND......SW 18  SW 18  SW 18
20 FT WIND GUST.30     30     35
MIX HGT (FT)....1800   1800   1800
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 24  SW 24  SW 24
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2
VENT RATE.......FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 27.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. WEST WINDS 23 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 40 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 21 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND
                    38 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (105400 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (MST)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
SKY (%).........44     44     44     44     44     44
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).40     40     40     40     40     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
TEMP............39     35     30     34     32     27
RH..............73     85     100    82     85     96
20 FT WIND......SW 18  SW 20  SW 21  W 20   W 20   W 20
20 FT WIND GUST.40     40     40     40     40     40
MIX HGT (FT)....300    300    300    2800   2800   2800
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 21  SW 21  SW 21  SW 38  SW 38  SW 38
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      2      2      2
VENT RATE.......POOR   POOR   POOR   VRYGD  VRYGD  VRYGD

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 45 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 33 TO 34 KNOTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (124400 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (MST)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
SKY (%).........56        56        56        56
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR    SNSHWR    SNSHWR    SNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).30        30        30        30
LAL.............1         1         1         1
TEMP............29        28        33        34
RH..............81        75        58        49
20 FT WIND......W 21G40   W 22G45   W 23G45   W 22G45
MIX HGT (FT)....3400      3400      4400      4400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 32      W 32      W 34      W 34
HAINES INDEX....2         2         2         2
VENT RATE.......VRYGD     VRYGD     VRYGD     VRYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...PAZOS
REQUESTED BY...WILMAR LAPAZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700680.0/EPZ
.EMAIL NMADC@FS.FED.US



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