Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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848
FNUS74 KEWX 211352
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for Reimers Turkey Loop Block B...Travis County Parks
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
752 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on November 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Southwesterly 5-10 flow should persist through mid-afternoon as high
temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 70s are offset by a
modest return of Gulf moisture. Therefore, minimum relative humidity
values should be in the 30-40 percent range this afternoon. Winds
will veer to the west-northwest during the middle and latter portions
of the afternoon with a pre-frontal trough before becoming northerly
behind a cold front that should move through around sunset. Northerly
near-surface winds will increase overnight to 10-15 mph and transport
winds will increase to 20-30 mph before they begin to decrease late
tomorrow morning and become calm by tomorrow evening. Minimum relative
humidity values will drop to near 30 percent tomorrow afternoon once
again, but temperatures will be much cooler in the lower 60s.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    north around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the north
                    around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2400 ft AGL increasing to 3400-4400 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon, then decreasing to 1400
                    ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 16 mph shifting to the northeast
                    around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89  85  69  54  38  33  28  30  33  35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............54  58  63  67  71  74  76  77  76  73
RH..............90  78  68  60  53  45  40  36  37  43
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  N
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   7   8   7   6   5   5   6
20 FT wind gust.                10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  N
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   5   6   5   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.        5       8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.7 2.4 3.8 4.4 3.4 1.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  E   NE
Transp wind spd.12  14  15  16  16  15  13  10  8   6
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 7 to 14 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL increasing to 2100-2400 ft AGL
                    after midnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 15 mph increasing to north 20 to
                    28 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 5 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........38  36  35  33  38  43  48  55  61  68  62  56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............66  63  62  60  59  58  57  56  56  55  52  51
RH..............54  60  62  67  69  72  75  74  72  72  74  71
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   9   10  10  11  12  13  13  13  12
20 FT wind gust.        10  11  12  12  13  14  16  16  16  14
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   5   6   7   8   8   8   9   10  10  10  9
Eye lvl wnd gst.5       8   8   9   9   10  11  12  12  12  11
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.6   8   12  15  20  23  26  28  28  28  26  25
Haines index....5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 7 to 12 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......1900-3200 ft AGL decreasing to 1000 ft AGL late
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 15 to 24 mph decreasing to 8 to 14 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........50  39  28  17  14  10  7   5   2   0   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............49  47  47  48  51  54  56  59  61  60  58  56
RH..............71  71  65  60  52  46  43  37  33  33  34  37
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..11  11  11  11  11  10  10  10  10  9   8   6
20 FT wind gust.13  13  13  13  13  12  12  12  12  11  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   7   6   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  9   9   9   9   8   8   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 2.4 1.0
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.24  23  22  22  20  18  17  15  14  12  10  8
Haines index....2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...00
Requested by...Glen Gillman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719062.0/EWX
.EMAIL glen.gillman@traviscountytx.gov



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