Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 291821
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for NMB Fire Training Controlled Burn...North Myrtle Beach Dept of Public Safety
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
221 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on March 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

Please note that proposed ignition time of 600 am is well before
the forecast inversion burnoff time of 1000 am.

.DISCUSSION...
Weak surface high pressure and a building upper level ridge
will be in control through Thursday. An upper trough
and cold front will move through on Friday and bring showers
and storms. The weekend looks rain-free and seasonable.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is favorable.

Fog potential for tonight...low.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 8 to 12 mph.
Max Mixing Hgt......3900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 18 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......67505 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........5.
Max ADI.............58.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31  27  22  24  26  28  30  33  35  39  44  48
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  54  55  58  62  65  67  68  68  68  68  67
RH..............93  93  89  82  73  66  62  61  61  62  65  68
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   9   10  11  12  11  11  11  11  11
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.2 2.8 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.7
Trans Wnd Dir...E   NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Trans Wnd Spd...10  10  14  15  16  16  17  18  18  18  18  18
Haines Index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   2
VR MPH-FT*1000..3   3   3   5   9   17  31  49  68  49  49  49
Stability.......E   C   C   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D   D
LVORI...........5   5   5   4   3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............7   8   8   11  13  19  28  37  48  53  56  58
Sfc pres (in)...010 010 012 012 012 012 012 012 005 005 005 005

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    evening. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 12 mph with gusts up to
                    20 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Min Mixing Hgt......300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 20 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......48759 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........3.
Min ADI.............32.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........50     54     58     62     67     75
Weather cov.....              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............65     61     61     61     62     63
RH..............74     85     87     87     86     87
CHC Pcpn (%)....0      10     20     40     50     50
20 ft wind......E 11   E 10   SE 11  SE 11  SE 12  S 11
20 ft wind gust.20     15     20     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....3400   2800   300    300    300    300
Transport wind..SE 18  SE 18  SE 20  SE 20  SE 20  S 20
Haines Index....2      3      3      3      3      3
VR MPH-FT*1000..49     49     49     49     49     49
Stability.......D      D
LVORI...........1      3      M      M      M      M
ADI.............58     34     M      M      M      M
Sfc pres (in)...30.05

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    morning...then showers and thunderstorms early
                    in the morning. A chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 11 to 14 mph with gusts up to
                    25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Max Mixing Hgt......4300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 25 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......48759 mph-ft.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........84     94     95     95     95     84
Weather cov.....CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............62     62     68     72     72     73
RH..............91     92     79     72     72     72
CHC Pcpn (%)....50     100    100    100    50     50
20 ft wind......S 11   S 11   S 12   S 13   S 14   S 14
20 ft wind gust.20     20     20     20     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....300    400    800    2300   4000   4300
Transport wind..S 18   S 18   S 21   S 24   S 25   S 24
VR MPH-FT*1000..49     49     49     49     49     49

$$
Forecaster...Bacon
Requested by...Billy Floyd, Division Chief
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705480.0/ILM
.EMAIL befloyd@nmb.us



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