Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FNUS72 KJAX 261435
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR DUVAL COUNTY WILDFIRE...FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1035 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1100 EDT ON JULY 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL SUPPORT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR 105.  SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS...POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT STRONGER NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.TODAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 96.
LVORI...............6.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2 UNTIL 1500...THEN 3.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 21 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 34 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 41 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 30.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 2 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100-6100 FT AGL.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 2 TO 9 MPH.
DISPERSION..........MAX NEAR 42.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........38     53     58     62
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........       S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............90     95     96     92
RH..............58     45     43     49
20 FT WIND......S 5    S 6    S 7    SW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.       10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....3700   5300   5800   5100
MIXNG WIND......S 8    S 8    S 9    SW 9
DISPERSION IDX..34     37     30     29
LVORI...........1      1      1      2

.TONIGHT...

MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
LVORI...............5.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.
DISPERSION INDEX....18 DECREASING TO 3 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 2 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........64     68     54     39     25     27
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
TEMP............90     84     79     76     74     72
RH..............54     67     82     94     97     100
20 FT WIND......S 7    SW 6   SW 5   SW 2   SW 2   SW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10            5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....3500   300    300    300    300    300
MIXNG WIND......SW 8   SW 6   SW 5   SW 3   SW 3   SW 2
DISPERSION IDX..22     4      2      2      1      1
LVORI...........2      3      4      6      6      7

.WEDNESDAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 53.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........30     31     31     35     51     51
WEATHER COV.....                            S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........                            S CHC  S CHC
TEMP............71     74     85     92     95     94
RH..............100    100    70     54     45     46
20 FT WIND......SW 2   SW 3   SW 3   SW 3   SW 5   S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5             10
DISPERSION IDX..1      4      16     34     50     55

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...LT. M.J. DUBOIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1601133.0/JAX



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