Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 011149
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Jack Pigeon 2 Poteau...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
549 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CST on March 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...There will be a slight chance of a few thunderstorms this
morning as a cold front moves through. Considerably drier air will sweep
across the area in the wake of the front. Winds will also increase
as that drier air surges in.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 62.
RH..................80 percent at ignition...Min 23 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....Northwest 24 to 25 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds northwest at 16 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 12 to 16
                    mph with gusts to around 30 mph.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the morning.
Dispersion..........54 increasing to 65 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 78 early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 67 late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 54.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 6.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 12 to 16 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4700 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 5741 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............51  47  47  48  51  55  58  59  60  61  60  58
RH..............80  78  74  68  52  39  29  27  25  23  23  23
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..16  16  16  16  16  16  14  14  14  14  14  14
20 FT wind gust.30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd gst.30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.25  25  24  24  24  24  24  24  25  25  25  24
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 35.
RH..................Max 59 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....North 14 to 23 mph decreasing to 8 to 13 mph
                    after midnight.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Dispersion..........15 early in the evening.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 5685 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............56  53  50  47  45  44  43  41  40  39  39  38
RH..............24  28  33  38  42  45  48  51  53  55  56  57
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   9   9   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  15  15  15  15  5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.23  22  20  18  17  15  14  13  13  12  10  8
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.THURSDAY...

Temperature.........Max 61.
RH..................Min 24 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 15 mph increasing to 16 to 17
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Dispersion..........16 increasing to 29 early in the afternoon,
                    then increasing to 44 early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 37 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 5000 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6009 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............37  38  41  45  48  52  55  57  59  60  59  58
RH..............59  58  53  47  39  33  28  26  25  24  26  28
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.                        10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.                        10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.7   6   6   6   6   7   8   10  13  15  16  17
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...J Goudsward
Requested by...Tim Nutley
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1703112.0/LZK
.EMAIL tnutley@fs.fed.us


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