Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 201918
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Electric Island Rx...MISC
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
218 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front and upper weather system will be over Arkansas, and
develop showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Isolated severe
storms may also be seen. Isolated areas of heavy rain will be
possible, mainly over northern to central Arkansas. The front and
upper system are forecast to push out of Arkansas on Saturday.

.FRIDAY...

Temperature.........71 at ignition...Max 82.
RH..................79 percent at ignition...Min 56 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 20 mph.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds south at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Dispersion..........31 increasing to 50.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4300 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4645 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............71  73  76  77  78  79  80  80  80
RH..............79  76  69  67  62  60  58  58  56
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.14  16  18  20  20  20  18  17  17
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  40  40  40  40  40  40

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 63.
RH..................Max 84 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 25 mph becoming northwest 8 to
                    15 mph early in the morning.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......South winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely after
                    midnight.
Dispersion..........49 decreasing to 13 early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 7 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Temp............79  77  76  75  73  72  70  69  68  67  66  65
RH..............58  61  64  66  69  72  75  78  78  81  81  84
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.18  20  21  21  22  24  25  25  21  15  10  8
Chc of pcpn (%).50  50  50  50  50  50  70  70  70  70  70  70

$$

Forecaster...M Trexler
Requested by...Kyle Lapham
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707280.0/LZK
.EMAIL klapham@tnc.org


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