Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 271120
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Dallas Mtn...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
620 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0600 CDT on July 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

The chances for any convection reaching the burn site are pretty
low today, around 10 percent or less. Better chances for rainfall
will exist tonight and into Friday as a weak frontal boundary
moves into the state from the north. Winds today will be largely
out of the southwest, but will veer around to the west late
tonight and into Friday morning.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........74 at request...Max 93.
RH..................90 percent at request...Min 49 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 8 mph increasing to 14 to 21
                    mph.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds southwest at 6 mph at request...otherwise
                    Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Dispersion..........19 increasing to 42.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at request...max 4.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 5718 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............74  74  76  79  83  86  88  90  92  92  93  93
RH..............90  87  85  77  70  63  59  58  52  52  51  49
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   21  18  16  15  14  14  14  14  15  16  17
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 75.
RH..................Max 84 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 26 mph increasing to 26 to 28 mph
                    early in the morning.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Dispersion..........46 decreasing to 12 early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 5448 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............92  91  88  85  82  81  80  79  78  77  77  76
RH..............51  52  57  63  69  72  74  77  76  79  79  82
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.17  18  20  20  21  22  24  25  26  28  28  26
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30

.FRIDAY...

Temperature.........Max 89.
RH..................Min 56 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 24 mph shifting to the north 12 to
                    14 mph late in the morning.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Dispersion..........17 increasing to 33.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 6400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 8056 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............75  75  77  79  81  84  85  87  88  89  89  89
RH..............84  84  79  77  72  65  63  61  59  56  56  56
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
Transp wind spd.24  22  20  17  15  14  13  13  13  12  12  12
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  40  40  40  40  40  40

$$
Forecaster...C Dalton
Requested by...Tim Nutley
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1713470.0/LZK
.EMAIL tnutley@fs.fed.us



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