Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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943
FNUS74 KMEG 292039
FWSMEG

Spot Forecast for Burn Block 109 & 112 "Big Hooligan Rx...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Memphis TN
339 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 CDT on March 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Gusty southery winds are expected to continue through sundown tonight.
Mid level clouds will move into the area ahead of an approaching front.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase after 9PM, with
widespread rain expected across the entire area tomorrow morning and
afternoon. Showers will come to an end by late tomorrow night.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Dewpoint............56.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......4300-4600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...1311-1402 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....South 23 to 24 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 10 to 11 meters/second.
Smoke dispersal.....MISSING.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........44  40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0
Temp............79  79
Dewpoint........56  57
RH..............45  47
20 FT wind dir..S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  9
20 FT wind gust.15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 4.6
Mix hgt (km)....1.3 1.4
Transp wind dir.S   S
Transp wind spd.23  24
Trans wind dir..S   S
Trans spd (m/s).10  11

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely after midnight.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 70 percent after
                    midnight.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Dewpoint............59.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms after midnight.
Mixing height.......3500-4800 ft AGL decreasing to 800-2100 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height (m)...1067-1463 meters AGL decreasing to 244-640
                    meters AGL in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 25 mph decreasing to 13 to 21 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds m/s.South 7 to 11 meters/second decreasing to 6 to
                    9 meters/second in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....MISSING.
Rainfall amount.....0.07 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........37  41  45  50  54  62  71  79  84  88  93  94
Weather cov.....                            LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
CWR.............0   10  10  10  10  10  10  70  70  70  70  70
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  10  70  70  70  70  70
Temp............78  78  77  74  72  71  69  67  67  65  64  63
Dewpoint........57  58  58  59  59  59  60  60  60  61  61  61
RH..............48  50  53  58  63  68  72  77  80  86  90  92
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   7   7   7   7   8   9   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.15  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...4.8 4.6 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.9
Mix hgt (km)....1.5 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.25  24  21  16  13  14  17  20  21  20  20  20
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).11  11  9   7   6   6   8   9   9   9   9   9

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
                    Showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................70 percent increasing to 80 percent in the
                    morning, then decreasing to 70 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Dewpoint............61 decreasing to 57 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......800-2700 ft AGL increasing to 4300-5400 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon, then decreasing to
                    2200-3300 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Mixing height (m)...244-823 meters AGL increasing to 1311-1646
                    meters AGL early in the afternoon, then
                    decreasing to 671-1006 meters AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 20 mph increasing to southwest 25
                    to 33 mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.South 6 to 9 meters/second increasing to
                    southwest 11 to 15 meters/second in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....MISSING.
Rainfall amount.....0.25 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........94        88        83        75
Weather cov.....LIKELY    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    LIKELY
CWR.............70        80        80        70
Chc of pcpn (%).70        80        80        70
Temp............63        66        73        78
Dewpoint........61        62        63        60
RH..............94        89        70        55
20 FT wind......S 10G15   S 10G15   S 12G20   SW 12G20
Mix hgt (ft)....1500      800       4300      3300
Mix hgt (m).....460       240       1310      1010
Transport wind..S 20      S 13      S 28      SW 29
Tran wind (m/s).S 9       S 6       S 13      SW 13

$$
Forecaster...Chiuppi
Requested by...Jim Walden (AFMO)
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705440.1/MEG



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