Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FNUS72 KMHX 021601
FWSMHX

SPOT FORECAST FOR GOOSE CREEK STATE PARK...NC STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1101 AM EST TUE FEB 2 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EST ON FEBRUARY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY THEN
SHIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEAST. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT ON FRIDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 14 MPH.

TIME (EST)          NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............44     47     51
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................57     59     58
RH..................69     64     67
20 FT WIND..........NE 6   NE 6   NE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     15
LVORI...............3      2      3
HAINES INDEX........2      2      2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 10 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MIN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH...BECOMING EAST 2 TO 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............55     59     63     65     67     72
WEATHER COV.........                                   PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   FOG
TSTM COV............
TEMP................55     51     49     49     51     52
RH..................72     83     89     93     89     89
20 FT WIND..........E 6    E 5    E 3    E 3    E 3    SE 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....10            5      5      5      5
LVORI...............3      4      6      7      7      6
HAINES INDEX........2      2      2      3      3      3

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LIKELY LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH...INCREASING TO 14 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTH 26
                    TO 29 MPH.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............71     66     55     72     81     93
WEATHER COV.........PATCHY S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........FOG    RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                     S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
TEMP................52     52     62     69     73     73
RH..................96     100    87     68     62     64
20 FT WIND..........SE 5   S 7    S 10   S 14   S 14   S 14
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     15     20     20     20
LVORI...............7      7      4      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX........4      5      5      4      4      3

$$
FORECASTER...GLENN
REQUESTED BY...JOE MARTIN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160202.GOOSE.01/MHX



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