Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMLB 260902
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Wasp WS-40 & 41...Wekiwa Springs State Park
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
502 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on July 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...The Atlantic ridge axis will lie across the central
and north-central Florida peninsula over the next 24 hours. The
pressure gradient will remain relatively weak with occasional
variability in wind direction and light speeds. Unseasonably warm
conditions will exist through late week. Lightning storm chances will
be below seasonal normals today, but will gradually increase in coverage
through late week. Poor dispersion indices overnight and early morning
will become fair at best in the afternoon.

Local ground fog will be possible over rain wetted areas and drainages
around daybreak from any recent rainfall, but is not forecast to become
dense.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent) with a gradual increase
                    in cloudiness late in the afternoon. Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms, mainly late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1500, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 97.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light/variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400-700 ft AGL increasing to 4000-4500 ft AGL
                    late in the morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 7 mph.
Dispersion index....6 early in the morning increasing to 37 during the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............7 very early in the morning decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........17  17  17  17  37  39  41  45
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  14  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2
Temp............86  89  91  93  95  95  95  94
RH..............68  61  56  52  48  48  46  47
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   5   6   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.8 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.3   3   5   6   7   7   7   7
Dispersion idx..9   12  20  28  36  37  33  35
LVORI...........3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy to considerably cloudy in the evening
                    (40-50 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 2000, then 9-15 strikes until
                    2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 78.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light/variable winds due to vicinity of eventual east
                    and west coast sea breeze collision during the evening.
                    Winds remaining light overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1700-3100 ft AGL decreasing to 300-600 ft AGL early
                    in the evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast to south 2 to 6 mph.
Dispersion index....25 decreasing to 1 late in the evening and overnight.
LVORI...............2 increasing to 7 overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........37     47     47     47     49     49
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20     30     30     30     30     30
LAL.............2      3      3      1      1      1
Temp............92     89     84     82     81     80
RH..............52     59     72     77     82     85
20 ft wind......SW 6   W 3    S 3    S 2    S 2    SE 2
20 ft wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....3100   600    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..S 6    S 3    S 2    S 2    S 2    SE 2
Dispersion idx..25     2      1      1      1      1
LVORI...........2      3      4      5      7      7

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......300-600 ft AGL increasing to 4100-4600 ft AGL
                    late in the morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South-southeast to south-southwest 3 to 8 mph.
Dispersion index....2 increasing to 36 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............7 early in the morning decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........49        52        52        65
Weather cov.....                    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        30        50
LAL.............1         1         3         3
Temp............80        82        89        93
RH..............85        82        64        52
20 FT wind......SE 3G5    S 6       S 8G10    S 8G10
Mix hgt (ft)....300       1300      3400      4600
Transport wind..SE 3      S 6      S 8       S 7
Dispersion idx..2         25        36        34
LVORI...........7         3         1         1

$$
Forecaster...Sedlock
Requested by...Paul Lammardo
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1713405.0/MLB
.EMAIL Paul.Lammardo@dep.state.fl.us


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