Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FNUS73 KOAX 221329
FWSOAX

Spot Forecast for Ponca Buffalo Pasture...SD-YAA
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
829 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......200-700 ft AGL increasing to 5200-6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 1 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest 1 to
                    2 mph early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (3200-14700 knot-ft).
GFDI (max)..........Low.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........15     16     16     12     7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............47     56     60     63     65
RH..............74     53     42     35     31
20 ft wind......NW 3   NW 3   N 3    NE 3   E 3
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....200    2200   5400   6000   5600
Transport wind..N 8    NE 6   N 2    W 1    SW 2
GFDI............1      1      1      1      1
Haines index....4      4      3      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10003      7      12     8      11

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......3100-4500 ft AGL decreasing to 0-1500 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to 17 mph
                    after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (1400-16700 knot-ft).
GFDI (max)..........Low.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........3      1      1      1      1      2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............63     56     50     46     44     41
RH..............35     44     55     59     64     72
20 ft wind......S 2    S 4    S 5    S 6    S 6    S 6
20 ft wind gust.5      5             10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....4500   1500   BLW100 300    300    200
Transport wind..SW 5   S 9    S 13   S 14   S 15   S 16
GFDI............1      1      1      1      1      1
Haines index....4      4      4      4      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100017     7      1      3      3      3

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 16 mph with gusts to around 30
                    mph increasing to 17 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1800 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4500 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    3500-5000 ft AGL early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 1700 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 26 mph increasing to 29 to 33 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (3900-39800 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (66700 knot-ft) late in the morning,
                    then increasing to excellent (103100 knot-ft)
                    in the afternoon decreasing to good (50500
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
GFDI (max)..........Moderate increasing to High in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........3      5      7      11     14     15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............41     49     59     65     70     71
RH..............74     59     43     31     27     25
20 ft wind......S 7    S 10   S 14   S 17   S 18   S 17
20 ft wind gust.15     20     25     30     30     30
Mix hgt (ft)....300    500    1800   3700   5000   3500
Transport wind..S 18   S 21   S 24   S 29   S 33   S 33
GFDI............1      3      6      11     16     16
Haines index....4      5      5      4      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/10004      8      40     93     141    103

$$
Forecaster...Fobert
Requested by...Jalen Bernie
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707493.0/OAX


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