Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 212202
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for FOREST ACRE TRAIL FIRE...ROANOKE COUNTY FIRE & RESCUE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
502 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 1700 EST on February 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A large area of high pressure aloft off the southeast U.S. coast will
remain in place through the end of the week.  A weak frontal boundary to
our north near the MD/VA/PA border, will drift southwest through the
region Thursday, then retreat back to the northeast later Friday.
Scattered showers and light rain are expected to accompany the front
on Thursday, but any areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms will remain
well to our west where a baroclinic zone will persist between the high
to our southeast and a deep trough in the western U.S.

Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, but remain above normal. Instead
of high temperatures in the 70s to near 80, we can look for 60s, still
well above normal, however.  Winds will become northeast later in the
day Thursday as the front drifts through the region, then return to
the southwest on Friday.

At burn time, the temperatures are in the mid 70s across the area with
relative humidity values near 60 percent. Winds are southwest 10-12 mph.
Winds will decrease to 5-10 mph after 7 PM EST. Temperatures will fall
into the 60s after sunset, with a low near 60 by daybreak Thursday.
Relative humidity values will rise to near 100% by daybreak. Wetting
rain is not expected tonight.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers.
CWR (0.01 in).......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 60.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 12 mph early in the
                    evening, becoming southwest, then light and
                    variable toward daybreak.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 5 to 14 mph.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................6.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........57  64  65  64  63  65  68  71  74  78  81  84
Weather cov.....None
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR............. 0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  15
Temp............72  70  69  68  67  67  66  65  65  64  64  62
RH..............67  70  70  71  73  75  77  79  80  82  84  90
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.10  8   6   6   5   5   6   6   6   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6
Mixng wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixng wind spd..14  13  12  12  12  9   7   6   5   6   7   7
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   6
ADI.............9   8   8   5   5   4   3   2   2   3   3   3
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Areas of fog in the
                    morning. Patchy fog in the afternoon. A chance
                    of rain and patchy drizzle.
CWR (0.01 in).......20 percent, increasing to 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming south 5 to 6
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon, then
                    becoming light and variable late.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 6 to 8 mph.
LVORI...............8.
ADI.................7.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........86  89  92  94  96  98  99  100 100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....SCH ARS ARS CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RNF FOG FOG RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  20  20  30  40  40  50  50  50  50  50  50
Temp............61  59  59  59  58  57  55  54  53  53  52  52
RH..............95  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   4   4   4   5   6   6   6   6   6   5   4
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   7   8   10  11  12  11  10  8   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Mixng wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixng wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   8   8   8   8   7   6   6
LVORI...........7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
ADI.............5   7   7   8   8   9   9   9   8   7   6   6
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Patchy fog early in
                    the evening. A chance of rain and patchy
                    drizzle.
CWR (0.01 in).......50 percent, decreasing to 30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 3 to 6 mph.
LVORI...............10.
ADI.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........100 99  98  97  96  95  94  93  93  93  93  92
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50  50  40  40  40  40  40  30  30  30  30  30
Temp............51  51  51  51  51  50  50  50  49  49  49  49
RH..............100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..4   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.7   4   4   4   4   4
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Mixng wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Mixng wind spd..6   6   5   3   3   3   5   5   5   3   3   3
LVORI...........9   9   9   10  10  10  10  9   10  10  10  10
ADI.............5   3   2   2   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Beasley
Requested by...batt chief burks
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1802305.0/RNK



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