Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FNUS73 KSGF 241751
FWSSGF

Spot Forecast for Paddy Access...US Forest Service - USFS
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1151 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1200 CST on November 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at 1-800-762-4363, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds will initially be light and southerly with poor dispersal through today and
overnight. A fold front will move through the region this late this evening around
midnight. This will produce a wind shift to the north with winds remaining generally
light from 5-10mph. Dispersal and transport winds will improve somewhat through the
day Saturday. The ridge top location of the wild fire will be exposed to winds through
the forecast period.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 percent.
TEMPERATURE.........66 at request...Max 72.
RH..................29 percent at request...Min 27 percent.
DEWPOINT............31 increasing to 36 in the afternoon.
APPARENT TEMP.......72.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....Light winds becoming south 6 to 12 mph.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........Winds south at 11 mph at request...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming south 6 to 12 mph.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 ft AGL at request...otherwise 100-1900 ft
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....Southwest 6 to 13 mph increasing to 16 to 24
                    mph in the late morning and early afternoon,
                    then increasing to 22 to 26 mph during mid and
                    late afternoon decreasing to around 15 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Fair /26800 knot-ft/ at request. Max...good
                    /42400 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at request...max 6.

TIME (CST)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........15  28  32  18  40  52
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0
TEMP............66  68  69  72  68  65
DEWPOINT........33  34  35  36  37  38
RH..............29  28  28  27  32  37
APARNT TMP (F)..66  68  69  72  68  65
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..9   9   9   9   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  20  20  20  15
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.7   7   7   7   6   5
EYE LVL WND GST.20  20  20  20  20  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.21  24  26  26  22  15
HAINES INDEX....4   4   5   5   5   6
VRATE KT-FT/100027  36  42  41  27  13

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 percent.
TEMPERATURE.........Min 44.
RH..................Max 82 percent.
DEWPOINT............39.
APPARENT TEMP.......59.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....North winds 5 to 8 mph becoming light.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........North winds 5 to 8 mph becoming light.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1600 ft AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....West 8 to 17 mph shifting to the northwest 6 to
                    9 mph.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Poor to poor (5600-12400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........49  62  67  77  65  56  63  49  45  44  38  28
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
TEMP............59  57  54  52  55  54  52  51  49  47  45  44
DEWPOINT........38  38  39  38  40  41  40  41  41  41  39  39
RH..............45  49  57  59  57  61  63  68  74  79  79  82
APARNT TMP (F)..59  57  54  52  55  54  52  51  47  44  42  41
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3
20 FT WIND GUST.15  10  5   15  5   5   10  5   5   15  5   5
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   NW  N   N   N   N
EYE LVL WND SPD.4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2
EYE LVL WND GST.15  10  5   15  5   5   10  5   5   15  5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  N
TRANSP WIND SPD.10  12  15  17  15  12  8   6   6   6   7   9
HAINES INDEX....6   6   6   5   4   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/10006   6   9   12  10  8   6   6   7   8   10  12

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 percent.
TEMPERATURE.........Max 60.
RH..................Min 33 percent.
DEWPOINT............37 decreasing to 31 in the afternoon.
APPARENT TEMP.......60.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....North winds 5 to 6 mph until late afternoon
                    becoming light.
WIND SHIFT..........
WIND (20 FT)........North winds 5 to 6 mph until late afternoon
                    becoming light.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2900 ft AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....North 10 to 18 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....Poor to good (10300-39300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........38  31  16  8   7   3   1   1   1   1   1   2
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
TEMP............44  44  45  50  53  56  57  59  60  59  57  53
DEWPOINT........39  39  39  38  37  35  33  32  31  30  30  30
RH..............82  82  79  63  54  45  40  36  33  33  35  41
APARNT TMP (F)..41  41  42  48  53  56  57  59  60  59  57  53
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   4   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.15  5   5   15  5   10  15  10  10  10  5   5
EYE LVL WND DIR.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
EYE LVL WND SPD.3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   3   2   2
EYE LVL WND GST.15  5   5   15  5   10  15  10  10  10  5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  N   N   N   N   NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.12  14  16  17  18  17  17  17  16  15  10  6
HAINES INDEX....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/100015  18  21  25  30  35  38  39  39  38  23  10

$$
Forecaster...HATCH
Requested by...Shasta Elliott
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1719105.0/SGF
.EMAIL momcdispatch@fs.fed.us



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