Suppression Forecast
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FNUS72 KTAE 271240
FWSTAE

Spot Forecast for LOST CREEK...USFS
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
840 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0900 CDT on April 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
through the period, so no Red Flag Conditions are expected. Strong
winds from the south will cause high dispersions across the area
this afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........77 at request...Max 84.
RH..................76 percent at request...Min 63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at request...otherwise
                    South winds 10 to 16 mph with gusts to around
                    25 mph.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL at request...otherwise 1200-3000 ft
                    AGL increasing to 3300-3800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 24 mph shifting to the southwest 24
                    to 25 mph early in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....16 increasing to 64.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........52  50  51  53  54  54  55  56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............77  79  80  81  83  82  82  82
RH..............76  74  69  67  63  65  65  67
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..13  15  16  16  16  16  15  14
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
Transp wind spd.20  24  24  24  25  25  25  24
Dispersion......50  58  60  62  68  67  65  59
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   1   1   1   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 72.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 13 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......1200-2900 ft AGL decreasing to 500-700 ft AGL
                    late in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 24 mph becoming south 3 to 6
                    mph late in the evening.
Dispersion index....59 decreasing to 3.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (CDT)      5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM
Sky (%).........57  57  58  58  59  60  57  51  48  49  52  53
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............81  79  77  76  75  74  74  73  73  73  72  72
RH..............69  77  82  85  84  87  87  90  90  87  90  90
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..13  10  9   7   6   5   3   3   3   3   2   2
20 FT wind gust.20  20  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.24  24  18  18  18  6   6   6   5   5   5   3
Dispersion......57  61  23  16  13  5   4   4   3   3   3   2
LVORI...........3   3   4   4   4   6   6   6   6   6   6   6

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 89.
RH..................Min 59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 6 to 12 mph with
                    gusts to around 20 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2500 ft AGL increasing to 2800-3300 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 9 mph increasing to 15 to 18 mph
                    late in the morning.
Dispersion index....2 increasing to 15 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 23 late in the morning increasing
                    to 54 late in the morning increasing to 61
                    decreasing to 48 late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (CDT)      5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........53  53  53  53  53  53  48  37  32  29  24  21
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............73  73  73  76  78  80  82  84  85  86  86  86
RH..............87  90  90  85  79  77  69  63  59  59  59  59
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   6   8   10  12  12  12  12  10  9
20 FT wind gust.10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  20  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.3   3   9   9   9   17  17  17  18  18  18  15
Dispersion......2   2   12  17  23  51  53  56  62  61  60  48
LVORI...........6   6   4   4   4   2   2   2   1   1   1   2

$$

Forecaster...Barry
Requested by...MARGIE BURRELL
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1707861.0/TAE
.EMAIL ficc.demob@gmail.com



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