Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FNUS74 KTSA 231238
FWSTSA

Spot Forecast for PERI Hayfield...NPS
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
638 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CST on February 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact NWS Tulsa at (918)832-7838, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
The fire danger will be a significant concern especially today and
again on Friday. Strong and gusty south winds, combined
with very low humidity due to the unseasonable warmth, will yield
conditions highly conducive to rapid fire spread. Though winds will be
lighter and the humidity slightly higher Friday compared to
Today, conditions behind the cold front will still be at least
marginally favorable for fire spread.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Dewpoint............52 decreasing to 49 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 13 mph with
                    gusts to around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......200-2000 ft AGL increasing to 1600-3500 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph increasing to 20 to 23 mph
                    late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5300 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).67 increasing to 75 in the afternoon.

TIME (CST)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........55  57  59  57  54  48  45  41  37  41  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  57  60  63  67  71  75  77  77  76  74
Dewpoint........53  53  54  53  53  52  51  51  49  50  50
RH..............91  85  80  70  61  51  43  40  37  40  43
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   7   7   7   9   13  14  15  16  16  14
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  15  20  25  30  30  30  30
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.4 2.6 1.6
Transp wind dir.SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.10  12  14  17  20  22  23  23  22  21  20
VRate kt-ft/1K..5   5   5   5   5   11  11  11  11  11  11
1700FT Mix T(F).64  65  66  67  69  71  74  76  77  76  74

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Dewpoint............49 decreasing to 46 early in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......400-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1900 knot-ft).
Stability class.....6.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).68.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........48  43  37  32  26  19  13  13  14  14  15  16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............72  70  68  65  63  61  59  57  55  54  53  51
Dewpoint........51  51  51  51  51  51  51  50  49  48  47  46
RH..............48  51  54  60  65  70  75  77  80  80  80  83
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT wind spd..11  13  14  14  15  15  14  12  10  8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25  25  30  30  25  25  20  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.20  21  21  22  22  21  20  20  20  20  18  16
VRate kt-ft/1K..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
1700FT Mix T(F).72  69  66  65  67  70  72  72  71  69  68  67

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Dewpoint............44 decreasing to 29.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1200-2900 ft AGL increasing to 3400-4500 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (5400-14800 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).61 decreasing to 56 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........17  23  28  34  28  22  16  16  16  16  23  31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  51  52  54  56  58  59  60  60  58  56  54
Dewpoint........45  43  40  38  37  36  35  33  32  30  29  29
RH..............80  74  63  54  49  44  40  36  35  34  35  38
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   9   10  11  12  13  13  13  12  12
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.5
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.15  15  15  16  17  18  20  21  21  22  23  24
VRate kt-ft/1K..5   5   5   5   5   5   15  15  15  15  15  15
1700FT Mix T(F).65  61  57  54  55  57  59  59  59  58  56  54

$$
Forecaster...HAAKE
Requested by...Nolan Moore
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702693.0/TSA
.EMAIL nolan_moore@nps.gov


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