Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 221718
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT FRI SEP 22 2017

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE SNOW GLACIER DAMMED LAKE IS RELEASING. WATER LEVELS ON THE SNOW
RIVER ARE STEADILY RISING AND ARE REFLECTIVE OF PREVIOUS OUTBURST
EVENTS. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WATER LEVELS ON KENAI LAKE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS FLOOD THE ROAD TO PRIMROSE CAMPGROUND
AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING THAT
HAS BEEN BEEN ISSUED FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION....

THE WEATHER MAP SHOWS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF ALASKA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHCENTRAL PACIFIC.
A RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF/PANHANDLE
DURING THE LAST 24HOURS BUT HAS BEEN GETTING FILLED WITH MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UP THE BACKSIDE THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE SUB-
TROPICS. PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOUR HAS NEARLY COVERED THE
ENTIRE STATE AND INTO CANADA WITH THE ONLY DRY LOCATION S REALLY
OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AND Y-K DELTA. THE INTERESTING THING IS
THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IN THE PACIFIC UP INTO AND THROUGH THE LOWER
COOK INLET BY SATURDAY EVENING THAT INTENSIFIES RAINFALL OVER THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA... SOUTHERN ALASKA RANGE AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. SOUTHEAST AND NORTH GULF IS BROUGHT INTO THE MIX AS THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN
1 AND 2 INCHES FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA UP INTO THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
RANGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ENDING AT 4 AM AKDT TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
MLRA2    MCNEIL RIVER SGS     PC RM :   1.50
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PC RG :   1.22
TTKA2    TATITLEK             PC RM :   1.10
HATA2    HATCHER PASS         PC RM :   1.00
ALXA2    ALEXANDER LAKE       PC RM :   1.00
PAKN     KING SALMON          PP RZ :   0.99
PATO     PORTAGE GLACIER      PP RZ :   0.98
NUCA2    NUCHEK               PC R2 :   0.98
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RG :   0.97
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PP RG :   0.93
TKVA2    TOKOSITNA VALLEY     PC RM :   0.90
SCSA2    SAWMILL CREEK NEAR S PP RG :   0.90
PASI     SITKA AIRPORT        PP RZ :   0.88
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PP RG :   0.87
GGLA2    GATES GLACIER        PP RG :   0.85
PAFE     KAKE                 PP RZ :   0.84
SVRA2    SILVER SALMON LAKES  PC RG :   0.83
DBWA2    DRY BAY GLACIER BAY  PP RG :   0.80
DBWA2    DRY BAY GLACIER BAY  PC RG :   0.80
NVSA2    NICK`S VALLEY SNOTEL PC RM :   0.79
FPKA2    FOURPEAKED RAWS      PP RG :   0.78
SVRA2    SILVER SALMON LAKES  PP RG :   0.77
ALXA2    ALEXANDER LAKE       PC R2 :   0.77
TKVA2    TOKOSITNA VALLEY     PC R2 :   0.76
BLSA2    BENTALIT LODGE HANDA PP RG :   0.76
TUGA2    TURNAGAIN PASS SNOTE PC R2 :   0.75
JTMA2    MT ROBERTS TRAM      PC RZ :   0.75
YUTA2    YAKUTAT 3 SSE CRN    PC R4 :   0.74
YESA2    MOUNT ALYESKA SNOTEL PC R2 :   0.73
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON      PP RG :   0.72
YUTA2    YAKUTAT 3 SSE CRN    PC R3 :   0.71
MCPA2    MCARTHUR PASS        PP RG :   0.71
YESA2    MOUNT ALYESKA SNOTEL PC RM :   0.70
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND        PC RM :   0.70
PACD     COLD BAY             PP RZ :   0.69
MHPA2    MITKOF HWY PETERSBUR PP RZ :   0.69
PAOU     NELSON LAGOON        PP RZ :   0.68
KSNA2    KING SALMON 42 SE    PC RG :   0.65
PAYA     YAKUTAT AIRPORT      PP RZ :   0.64
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :   0.63
SAWA2    SPEEL ARM STATION 4- PC RZ :   0.63
PPSA2    POWDER PATCH STATION PC RZ :   0.63
KSNA2    KING SALMON 42 SE    PC R3 :   0.62
RUGA2    RUTH GLACIER RAWS    PC RG :   0.61
KSNA2    KING SALMON 42 SE    PC R4 :   0.61
PAKT     KETCHIKAN AIRPORT    PP RZ :   0.59
PAEN     KENAI                PP RZ :   0.59
PATK     TALKEETNA            PP RZ :   0.58


...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE MAINLAND
AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$
ETH



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