Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FZAK80 PAFC 062210
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
210 PM AKDT FRIDAY 06 APRIL 2016

FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 11 MAY 2016

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...

SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL
ALSO DRIVE A FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BERING ON MONDAY
AND ABSORB THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ON MONDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A POTENT FRONT WILL PUSH FROM THE
NORTHERN BERING INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-

ICE COVERED.

-BERING SEA-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-
PKZ181-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
PKZ180-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM A POINT NEAR 60.9N
165.2W TO 62.1N 166.0W TO 62.3N 165.7W TO 62.7N 167.2W TO 62.2N
167.3W TO 61.9N 167.3W TO 60.7N 168.8W TO 59.8N 172.4W TO 59.2N
177.7W TO 59.2N 179.1W TO 59.8N 179.5W AND CONTINUES IN RUSSIAN
WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER. DECAYING SHOREFAST ICE
CONTINUES TO MELT FROM THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER DELTA UP TO THE YUKON
RIVER DELTA.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE BERING SEA...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BERING SEA AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN A LITTLE ON SUNDAY WHICH SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PROPAGATES THROUGH
THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS. WE EXPECT THE REMAINING SEA ICE IN
NORTON SOUND TO CONTINUE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE SOUND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRST YEAR ICE IN THE MAIN HIGH CONCENTRATION ICE
BELT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH COAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE DOWN THE EAST
COAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND DOWN TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD APART TO THE WEST AND SLOWLY MELT DUE TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS WIND AND WAVE ACTION. WE EXPECT
ICE CONCENTRATIONS ALONG THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOST DRAMATIC
DECREASE IN CONCENTRATIONS THROUGHOUT THE MAIN ICE PACK BETWEEN 174W
AND 178W.

$$


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