Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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000
FZAK80 PAFC 232314
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
207 PM AKST MONDAY 23 JANUARY 2017

FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY 28 JANUARY 2017

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AS A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES FROM  SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
INTO  BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LAST SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL
PROGRESS NORTHWESTWARD NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ510-EASTERN U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ500-WESTERN U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-

ICE COVERED.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY-
PKZ165-PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
PKZ180-KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO ETOLIN STRAIT-
PKZ181-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
PKZ185-SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-


THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM 56.5N  158.2W TO
57.3N 158.2W TO 59.9N 169.5W TO 64.4N 176.5W AND CONTINUES INTO
RUSSIAN WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER.

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE BERING SEA...

NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THRUSDAY EXCEPT FOR A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT TRACKS EAST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. ON FRIDAY THE LOW CENTER
MOVING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION. THE ICE EDGE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD 35 TO 50 NM BY SATURDAY.

SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FROM NUNIVAK WEST PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING TO THE WEST. EXPECT THIS ICE EDGE
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 NM IN THIS PERIOD.  AREAS EAST TOWARD
BRISTOL BAY WILL BE GENERALLY EASTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT THE ICE EDGE TO MOVE
NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 NM THROUGH SATURDAY.

-COOK INLET-
PKZ130-WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
PKZ139-COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
PKZ141-KACHEMAK BAY-

COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SYNOPSIS FOR COOK INLET...LOW  PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING COOK INLET UNDER NORTHERLY
FLOW...THEN A STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN
GULF OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 59.9N 151.7W TO 60.1N 151.8W TO
59.8N 152.4W TO 60.1N 152.5W TO 59.2N 153.9W TO 58.8N 153.1W TO
58.6N 153.8W. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER.

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR COOK INLET...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TUESDAY...HOWEVER WARMER
AIR WILL MOVE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY. SEA ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
GROW...AND THE ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD UP TO 15 NM
THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE NOTE...COOK INLET ICE CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TIDES.

$$



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