Ice Forecast
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FZUS81 KCLE 062315
ICELIO

GREAT LAKES ICE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
615 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

ACTIVE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ON THE GREAT LAKES CAN
BE FOUND AT...HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GREATLAKES/?C=HAZ&L=GL&P=A

5 DAY ICE DISCUSSION...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WILL BE WARMER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKES LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
WARMING TREND SHOULD SLOW OR STOP ICE GROWTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MINOR DETERIORATION TO THE ICE IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM
BY MID-WEEK.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

THE GREAT LAKES ICE ANALYSIS PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND AT:

HTTP://WWW.NATICE.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GREAT_LAKES.HTML

AND

HTTP://WWW.GLERL.NOAA.GOV/DATA/ICE/#CURRENTCONDITIONS

 LOCATION   03/07   03/08   03/09   03/10   03/11   03/12
   DULUTH  21  35  17  30  18  45  30  38  22  31  21
MARQUETTE  15  31  12  33  21  41  29  46  27  43  22  32
 GREENBAY  18  37  17  36  21  40  28  47  29  46  26  40
MILWAUKEE  23  39  21  35  25  38  29  44  32  46  30  40
  CHICAGO  24  42  24  39  24  41  26  50  31  53  33  46
 MUSKEGON  22  36  28  35  27  37  26  43  29  45  27  43
   ALPENA  17  31  15  32  21  35  22  43  26  43  25  34
  DETROIT  20  37  25  36  26  38  25  43  29  43  28  42
   TOLEDO  18  37  26  37  22  40  24  45  29  50  32  49
CLEVELAND  18  37  27  37  25  41  27  46  31  50  33  47
  BUFFALO  17  31  23  29  21  35  23  41  30  42  27  37

A FULL GRAPHICAL FORECAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GREATLAKES/?C=MAP&L=GL&P=A&M=TE

A FULL GRAPHICAL FORECAST OF WIND ON THE GREAT LAKES CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GREATLAKES/?C=MAP&L=GL&P=A&M=WS

FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS
COMPARED TO NORMAL CALCULATED ON FRI MAR 6:

LOCATION         DATE   NORMAL CURRENT
----------------------------------------

   DULUTH,   MN  MAR    5 1861 2107
MARQUETTE,   MI  MAR    5 1594 2253
SAU_S_MAR,   MI  MAR    5 1289 1936
 GREENBAY,   WI  MAR    5 1190 1488
MILWAUKEE,   WI  MAR    5  652  952
  CHICAGO,   IL  MAR    5  500  910
 MUSKEGON,   MI  MAR    5  413  785
   ALPENA,   MI  MAR    5  985 1546
  DETROIT,   MI  MAR    5  382  891
   TOLEDO,   OH  MAR    5  383  978
CLEVELAND,   OH  MAR    5  182  829
  BUFFALO,   NY  MAR    5  527 1018


NORMAL TEMPS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES FOR FRI MAR 6

LOCATION     HIGH LOW
----------------------------------------------

    DULUTH,MN  32  14
 MARQUETTE,MI  33  16
  GREENBAY,WI  32  14
 MILWAUKEE,WI  41  25
   CHICAGO,IL  44  27
  MUSKEGON,MI  41  25
    ALPENA,MI  32  14
   DETROIT,MI  43  26
    TOLEDO,OH  44  26
 CLEVELAND,OH  44  28
   BUFFALO,NY  41  24


U.S. COAST GUARD ICE OBSERVATIONS
---------------------------------

ON 5 MAR 2015 AT 01Z THE COAST GUARD CUTTER BRISTOL BAY REPORTED 100
PERCENT ICE COVERAGE FROM NEAR PORT STANLEY TO 11 NM NORTHEAST OF SE
SHOAL. PLATE ICE WAS 6-8 INCHES THICK WITH 1-3 INCHES BRASH ICE IN
THE TRACK.

ON 5 MAR 2015 AT 02Z THE COAST GUARD CUTTER HOLLYHOCK REPORTED ON
NORTHERN LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE 100 PERCENT PANCAKE ICE WITH
2-4 INCH THICKNESS....TO 6NM NORTH OF THUNDER BAY 50 PERCENT PLATE
ICE WITH 2-6 INCH THICKNESS...TO 9NM NORTH OF POINT AUX BARQUES OPEN
WATER TO 7NM NE OF LEXINGTON. 2NM ABOVE LHC1 100 PERCENT COVERAGE
WITH 12 INCHES OF BRASH ICE IN THE TRACK.

ON 5 MAR 2015 AT 20Z THE COAST GUARD IN ERIE PENNSYLVANIA REPORTED
100 PERCENT FAST ICE WITH 12-24 INCH THICKNESS.

ON 6 MAR 2015 AT 01Z THE COAST GUARD CUTTER BRISTOL BAY REPORTED 100
PERCENT ICE COVERAGE FROM POINT BURWELL TO 6NM WEST OF LONG POINTE
WITH 1-3 FEET OF SNOW COVERED PLATE ICE. PRESSURE RIDGES RANGED FROM
1-3 FEET. 1 NM WEST OF LONG POINT REPORTED 90 PERCENT FROZEN PLATE
ICE COVERAGE WITH 8-10" SNOW DEPTH AND 1-2 FEET PRESSURE RIDGES. AT
NANTICOKE HARBOR 100 PERCENT REFROZEN PLATE/BRASH ICE WITH 1-2 FEET
SNOW COVER.

ON 6 MAR 2015 AT 01Z THE COAST GUARD STATION IN LORAIN OHIO REPORTED
100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE ON LAKE ERIE FROM LORAIN TO VERMILION AND
IN THE RIVERS AND BOAT LAUNCHES. PACK ICE 8-15 INCHES THICK.

NOTE: ALL WEB SITE ADDRESSES SHOULD BE ENTERED INTO YOUR BROWSER IN
LOWER CASE.

$$

KEC










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