Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 301846
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
246 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST. USED TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS FOR WAVEHEIGHTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST WITH A SURFACE HIGH
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE E GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS AS AFTERNOON HEAT TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND TEMPORARILY SEPARATES THE GULF
RIDGE SEGMENT FROM THE ATLC RIDGE. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW
LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF HIGHER E-SE WINDS IN THE MODERATE RANGE CONFINED TO
THE S AND SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND SW-W 10-15 KT WINDS N
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL
MATERIALIZE ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE
EVENINGS AS THE TYPICAL SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THAT
COAST...AND WNW AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...DISSIPATING BY EARLY IN AFTERNOONS. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY ACTIVE AREA OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUING OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF FROM 22N TO
28N AND BETWEEN 93W-97W DUE TO UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW NOTED IN THAT
PART OF THE GULF AS THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD N OF 26N WHILE BROAD UPPER RIDGING REMAINS S OF 26N W OF
87W. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WED WHILE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT THERMAL EVENT WILL BEGIN TO SET
UP THIS EVENING WITH E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 23.5N BETWEEN 90-93W
BY LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY
EARLY WED AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE W AS MENTIONED
ABOVE AND THE GRADIENT TO ITS E RELAXES. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT N BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM TAMPA BAY TO NE TEXAS BY EARLY
THIS EVENING...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU...THEN SHIFT
FURTHER N TO A POSITION FROM CEDAR KEY FL TO THE MS DELTA SAT
THROUGH SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. USED TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN. NOCTURNAL PULSES TO GALE WARNING FORCE ARE
FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER A SMALL AREA
NEAR THE COAST OF NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 15 FT. MINIMAL GALE WARNING CONDITIONS AREA
EXPECTED AGAIN BRIEFLY ON THU NIGHT.

THE N EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INLAND BELIZE THIS
EVENING. THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE OF TRADES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THESE
NOCTURNAL CONDITIONS BEGINNING AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY ALONG 67W WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED
AND WED NIGHT...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH FRI. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
IS MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER THE FAR EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY TONIGHT...MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT INTO WED...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT
AND THU...AND POSSIBLY SLOW DOWN OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU
NIGHT THROUGH SAT BEFORE MOVING INLAND SAT NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. USED TAFB NWPS PARAMETERS FOR WAVEHEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE MAIN FEATURE IS A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH
CENTERED WELL NE OF THE BASIN AT 34N50W SW TO S FLORIDA. THE ASCAT
PASS FROM 1440 UTC THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED A BROAD SWATH OF SW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 29N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN THIS AREA AS WELL. THE
FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK WITH THE RIDGE SHIFT SLIGHTLY N TO A
POSITION FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FL ON WED...AND FROM NEAR 29N65W
TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THU NIGHT. THE SW 20-25 KT WINDS N OF
29N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT
TONIGHT...THEN START UP AGAIN WITHIN THE SAME GENERAL AREA WED
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH LATE WED NIGHT. SW 15-20 KT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER THE NW PORTION ON FRI AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVE OFF THE SE GA COAST. THE TROUGH WILL STALL LATE ON
FRI.  MODERATE E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE
ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS
INTO EARLY EVENINGS. THESE WIND EPISODES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT FROM 11.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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