Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 310717
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
317 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF WATERS TO NEAR 28N91W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS TODAY...THEN
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON SAT AND LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUN.
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25
KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH BY SAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NE GULF WATERS. EXPECT ALSO BUILDING SEAS OF 6-7 FT WITH THESE
WIND SPEEDS.

AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND MOVE NW DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. MAINLY FRESH N-NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 25 KT BY MON NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
RIDGE PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY
UNDER 4 FT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 0200 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF 20-25 KT
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
73W-78W. THE SAME ASCAT PASS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY FRESH NE
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N. FRESH WINDS ARE
ALSO NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

MAINLY FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH POCKETS OF STRONG NE TRADES NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SAT. BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...EXPECT
TRADE WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
BUILDING SEAS OF 10-12 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS BACK N OF AREA.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 75W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY...THEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SUN...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC
WILL APPROACH 55W LATE ON SAT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON MON.

LOOKING AHEAD...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AS THE
LOW PRES WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING TROUGH PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
OVER THE NW WATERS MOVES N OF AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW ALONG
29N. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST ZONES AMZ111
AND AMZ113 THROUGH SUN. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE S
WATERS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
FRESH TRADES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA EACH
NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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