Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 131801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR WINDS/SEAS TO EXCEED THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT/8 FT WILL COME LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DRIVES FRESH TO
STRONG E-SE WINDS. THESE WINDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
FRI WHEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO TEXAS...INCREASING THE SE RETURN FLOW.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MON...THE E CARIBBEAN ON
MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT AND WED...AND
REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT
NEAR THIS WAVE S OF 14N.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...BUT LOOK FOR THE IMPACTED AREA TO GRADUALLY SHRINK TO
THE S CENTRAL PORTION THROUGH WED AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MIGRATES
TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS AND WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL FILL WESTWARD AS THIS
INVERTED TROUGH DISSIPATES...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXPANDING
IN AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ONCE AGAIN BY THU BEHIND THE
TROPICAL WAVE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS SEEN ALONG THE NE COAST OF
COLOMBIA THIS MORNING WILL APPEAR AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TAKE
A BREAK UNTIL THU MORNING. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA S
OF 17N EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS BEST
INITIALIZED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THERE WERE
WIDESPREAD 25-30 KT WINDS THIS MORNING. IT IS GENERALLY BETTER AT
HANDLING THE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ALONG COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS UNDER A TRADE REGIME. THEREFORE...THE GFS WAS USED TO
ADJUST THE FORECAST.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS/MWW3 BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE SW N ATLC. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF WINDS/SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIE OFF THE N
COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE WHERE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT THU
EVENING AND FRI EVENING. THE GFS GENERALLY HANDLES THESE FINE-
SCALE DETAILS WELL. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. WINDS WERE
ALREADY RUNNING SLIGHTLY WEAK COMPARED TO EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
PASSES HERE AND A 23 KT OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP J8NZ AT 1200
UTC...SO WINDS AND SEAS WERE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THE
GUIDANCE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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