Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 180756
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
256 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium to high
confidence.

A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf
region producing mainly moderate to fresh SE winds and seas
generally between 4 and 6 ft. Areas of fog, dense in some
locations, are developing over the NW Gulf and along the
the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Visibilities will be
reduced to less than one mile. A stationary front remains inland
near the coast of Texas. A reinforcing push of cold air will
allow the front to move across the NW Gulf tonight into Thursday,
reaching a position from SW Louisiana to NE Mexico by early
Thursday afternoon, and from SE Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico
by Thursday night. Southerly return flow will slightly increase
just ahead of the front, that is forecast to move across the
north waters through Friday while dissipating. Some shower and
thunderstorm activity is also expected in association with this
front.

A stronger cold front is forecast to sweep across the Gulf
waters during the upcoming weekend. Currently, model guidance
indicates that the front will enter the northwestern Gulf Saturday
night, reaching from SE Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico by
Sunday morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan
Peninsula by Sunday evening. A band of showers and thunderstorms
will be associated with the front. Fresh to strong southerly
winds will develop ahead of the front, with strong to gale force
winds behind the front on Sunday. With this scenario, wave
guidance is currently forecasting a large area of seas building
up to 16-18 ft across the Gulf waters behind the front. The
current forecast package already shows gale conditions possible
mainly across the forecast zones N of 22N W of 87W Sunday and
Sunday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Strong high pressure north of the region combined with the
Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to
strong NE-E winds across the majority of the east and central
Caribbean, including through the Windward and Mona passages, and
in the lee of Cuba through tonight. Near gale force winds are
expected to continue to pulse near the coast of Colombia also
through tonight, with seas up to 11 ft. The ridge north of the
region will shift southeast, become elongated, and weaken later
this week. This will allow for trades across the Caribbean to
decrease beginning Thursday. During the upcoming weekend, SE-S
winds are forecast to increase across the western Caribbean and
the Yucatan Channel ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf
of Mexico. This front is currently forecast to reach the Yucatan
Channel and the NW Caribbean Sunday night with strong winds and
building seas.

Over the tropical north Atlantic waters moderate to fresh NE-E
winds are noted based on scatterometer data. Generally tranquil
conditions are expected over the next several days as high pressure
shifts closer to the region. As a result, expect mainly gentle
to moderate trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft in NE-E swell.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A ridge axis is over the north waters. Fresh to strong winds and
seas of 7-8 ft are noted S of 22N on the southern periphery of
the ridge, including the approach to the Windward Passage. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds and seas of about 4 to 6 ft prevail N
of 22N under the influence of the ridge.

Winds will begin to increase to 20-25 kt across the north waters
later today ahead of a cold front approaching the forecast
region from the north. The front will enter the north waters
tonight and reach from 31N63W to 28N70W to 30N77W by Thursday
morning. Minimal gale force winds in the southwesterly flow
ahead of the front will briefly affect the forecast zone AMZ115
tonight. Then, the gale conditions are expected to shift east of
65W by Thursday morning. West to northwest winds of 20 to 30 kt
are expected behind this front. Seas up to 13-14 ft in NW swell
will build in the wake of the front across zone AMZ115 by
Thursday morning. The front will continue to move SE across the
eastern zones on Friday, reaching the SE waters by Friday night
while weakening. Southerly winds will increase to 20-25 kt across
the NW part of the forecast area on Sunday with seas building to
8-9 ft. These winds may reach gale force across AMZ111 by Sunday
night.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night.
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
SANCTUARY...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.


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