Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 191838
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
238 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND WED. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE WILL
MEANDER FROM CENTRAL FL TO THE NW GULF COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG
THE RIDGE AXIS. VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
N-CENTRAL...AND NE GULF...WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SE-S
10-15 KT NOCTURNAL WINDS OVER THE W-CENTRAL AND NW WATERS AROUND
THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT SLY RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT
EXPECTED ON WED NIGHT.

S OF 23N...EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS
ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD...
EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ON WED EVENING BEHIND THE TROPICAL
WAVE. THESE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD W ALONG 22N OR 23N
GRADUALLY BECOMING E TO SE LATE WED NIGHT...AND DIMINISHING TO
SE AT 20 KT NEAR 22N94W BY SUNRISE THU. THIS EVENING EVENT WILL
SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING EACH MORNING...AND LOSE
IDENTITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...EXCEPT
GFS/ECMWF BLEND DAYS 4 AND 5. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE DAYS 3-5 WITH ATLC TROPICAL
WAVES

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER N WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL BE
CARRIED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH WED...AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THU...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON
FRI AND SAT AND THE EASTERN PART OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUN. A
THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE FORECAST WATERS ALONG 42W MOVING
W AT 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN PART OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON THU AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON FRI. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE
MODELS TO BE ATTENDED BY LOW PRES WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST
WATERS. THE NHC/WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST POINTS WILL BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE FORECAST OF THIS WAVE/LOW PRES SYSTEM.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASING OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
...AND THEN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS LATER THIS WEEK. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE GRIDS AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION.

FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH THE MAXIMUM AFFECTED AREA OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
ONLY PATCHES OF 20-25 KT TRADES OVER THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON
SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
WED EVENING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL...EXCEPT GFS/ECMWF BLEND DAYS 4 AND 5. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH MORE WEIGHT APPLIED TO THE NWPS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RELATIVELY WEEK RIDGE STRETCHING E
TO W NEAR 27N. THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST NEAR 27N WHILE SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY N AND S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A HIGH PRES CENTER
SHIFTING E AND W ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE E OF 66W. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA AND STALL FROM 31N78W TO 28N80W
TODAY...WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST SW- WSW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING SW 10-15 KT
CONDITIONS N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
SOME EARLY SAT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH DIPS INTO THE NW
AND N CENTRAL WATERS PRECEDED BY SW 15-20 KT N OF ABOUT 29N...AND
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT WITH LIGHT NW 5-10 KT WINDS.

EASTERLY TRADES FROM THE RIDGE AXIS S TO ALONG 22N ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT 5-10 KT. TO THE S OF 22N MODERATE 10-15 KT TRADES
ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ALONG THE N COAST
OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
WITH EVENING SURGES TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING ON THU EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS
AND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO HISPANIOLA COULD POSSIBLY INCREASE
TO HIGHER LEVELS THAN FORECASTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK PENDING
EVOLUTION OF CURRENT ATLC TROPICAL WAVES AND POSSIBLE NEAR
FUTURE LOW PRES SYSTEMS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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