Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 241809
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS
USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. SEAS N
OF 25N WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM 1 TO 3 FT...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2
TO 4 FT S OF 25N. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH EVENING AND
MOVE WEST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...SUPPORTING LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT...EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
GULF ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS
USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES
OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF THESE WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND
PASSING TROPICAL WAVES. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN
ZONES OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY MONDAY. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS
USED A WEIGHTED BLEND OF LATEST GLOBAL WAVE MODELS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL DRIFT WEST TO THE EASTERN
GULF TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH JUST EAST OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND MERGE WITH BROAD RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY THIS WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BECOME ANCHORED ALONG 28N FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CURRENT RIDGE PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT N OF 25N. SOUTH OF 25N...MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL.
THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG EACH
EVENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK...WINDS TO THE N OF
25N W OF 75W WILL BECOME MODERATE E TO SE...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE N
OF 25N E OF 75W NEAR THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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