Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 261041
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
641 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 26/06
UTC: UNDER PRESSURE FROM A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST GRADUAL EROSION OF SHORT WAVE RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN ENVELOPING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE...WITH CAP INVERSION TO
THEN GRADUALLY SLACKEN. PWAT CONTENT IS TO INCREASE TO NEARLY TWO
INCHES ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
A MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL THEN PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS MJO
CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE BASIN WIDE.

THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON WHAT IMPACT THIS IS GOING TO HAVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE UKMET/ECMWF ONLY SHOWING LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH...FORESEEING HEAVY RAINS DURING
THE SHORT-MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. IMPROVING MJO ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS GIVE SUPPORT TO THE GFS SOLUTION...TILTING THE SCALE IN
FAVOR OF THE GFS MODEL. THIS SOLUTION IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE
NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WITH A LARGE MAJORITY SHOWING POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.


CARDOS...SMN (MEXICO)
CABANERIT...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

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