Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 271619
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1218 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 30 2016 - 12Z SAT SEP 03 2016

...OVERVIEW/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION
OF FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD FEATURE A
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST AND A RELATIVELY SHARPER TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE WESTERN U.S..  THE WPC DAY 3-7 FORECAST
STARTED WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND TO BEST SMOOTH OUT SOME OF
THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE INLAND
PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE UNUSUALLY LARGE AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD AND
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH THE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
GULF COAST STATES.  THE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTS CONFIDENCE IN
ANY SCENARIO IS QUITE LOW.  THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
CURRENTLY MONITORING THREE AREAS FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT THAT
COULD IMPACT THE U.S....ONE JUST SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS...A SECOND
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A THIRD SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
(FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV).


...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

LOCATIONS FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
DEPENDING ON HOW INDIVIDUAL FEATURES EVOLVE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT PRESSING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY-THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL OR
BELOW NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD KEEP DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHILE THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL U.S..


GERHARDT

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