Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 231203
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
803 AM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

VALID 00Z FRI MAR 24 2017 - 00Z FRI MAR 31 2017

THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE HAWAII REGION WILL BE FEATURED BY
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING CENTERED NEAR 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, WITH
HAWAII ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT 500MB
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE NEAR 588DM, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.  BOTH THE GEFS MEAN AND EC MEAN ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN, AND BOTH SUGGEST THAT ANY MAJOR STORM
SYSTEMS SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE.  THE MAIN
EFFECT OF THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH WILL BE TO DECREASE
THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BY WEAKENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITHIN THE RIDGE, MAINLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD BREAK
IN THE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE TRADES VEER SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.  INCREASED OCEAN SWELLS FROM THESE STORM
SYSTEMS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
ISLANDS.

D. HAMRICK

$$




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