Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 071209
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
808 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

VALID 00Z WED JUL 08 2015 - 00Z WED JUL 15 2015

THE 7/00Z FORECAST CYCLE GUIDANCE (ECENS AND GEFS) WERE VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC THROUGH DAY 6 (14/00Z)
--- BUT THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN LESS THAN
DESIRED `SYNCH` AFTER 11/00Z IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS. THE
7/06Z GEFS WOULD BE AN EVEN BETTER SOLUTION BLENDED WITH THE 7/00Z
ECENS AS A BASELINE FORECAST SOLUTION THROUGH THE DAY 7 (15/00Z)
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ACTIVE REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONCERNING HAWAI`I ---
INVOF 13N 135W (ON MOST RECENT 7/1130Z SATELLITE IMAGERY) --- WAS
HANDLED REASONABLY WELL AT THE 500MB LEVEL BY THE DETERMINISTIC
7/06Z GFS AND 7/00Z ECMWF UNTIL 11/00Z. ONCE THE DISTURBANCE
MIGRATES NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS --- THESE PIECES OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING FORWARD
MOTION OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY. BUT FOR A MID-POINT DAY 5 FORECAST
POSITION (12/12Z) --- THESE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE NOT FAR
OFF THE MARK. LIKEWISE, THE FAVORED BLEND OF THE MEANS SUPPORTED
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE INVOF 15N
AND THE DATELINE FOR DAY 6 AND ITS WESTWARD MIGRATION ON DAY 7.

VOJTESAK



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