Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 031206
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
805 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

VALID 00Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 00Z TUE AUG 11 2015

HURRICANE GUILLERMO WILL BE THE DOMINANT FOCUS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  EXPECT GUILLERMO TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS SOON
AND THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  WED-THU IS THE PRIMARY TIME
FRAME IN WHICH THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE ANY ENHANCED
WINDS/RAINFALL.  BASED ON THE 0900 UTC FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER (CPHC), GUILLERMO SHOULD TRACK JUST NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS LIKELY KEEPING HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AS
WELL.  STILL THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT SOME
LOCATIONS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TRACK COULD YIELD
SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER IMPACTS.  CONSULT LATEST CPHC PRODUCTS FOR
COMPLETE INFORMATION REGARDING GUILLERMO.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF GUILLERMO, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST/NORTH OF THE STATE ALONG 35-40N LATITUDE WILL BRING
MODERATE TO BRISK TRADES FROM FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WINDWARD
FOCUSED RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE.
ASIDE FROM TYPICAL DETAIL DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE LOW
PREDICTABILITY, MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FRI-MON.

RAUSCH

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