Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 140429
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1228 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

VALID JUL 14/0000 UTC THRU JUL 17/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


00Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


COLD TROUGH/DEEP CYCLONE IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 12Z CANADIAN WAS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH -- ITS
USUAL BIAS -- DUE TO AN EXTRA PACKET OF ENERGY ROUNDING ITS BASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  CONSIDERING THE FLOW UPSTREAM WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS, THE
SOLUTIONS SHOWING A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH BASE IN THE SOUTHEAST
MAKE THE MOST SENSE.  A NON-CANADIAN COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED HERE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE CANADIAN`S MODEL
BIAS.


SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST/PLAINS INTO THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: UKMET/GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

IN THE PLAINS, THE 00Z NAM BECOMES A DEEP OUTLIER -- ITS USUAL
BIAS.  THE 12Z CANADIAN SHOWS AN INTERESTING DOUBLE SHORTWAVE
STRUCTURE, WITH ONE ACCELERATING INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LINGERING IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z UKMET/00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
BEST, AND ARE PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$




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