Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 230700
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID OCT 23/0000 UTC THRU OCT 26/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

...PLEASE NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF SATELLITE INFORMATION
INGESTED INTO THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUES WITH UNCERTAIN
IMPACTS. PLEASE REFERENCE SDM ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGES UNDER AWIPS
PIL ADMNFD FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE BEST 12Z ENSEMBLE LOW CENTER CLUSTERING IS WITH THE QUICKER
00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF CONSENSUS, WHICH WAS
PREFERRED DUE TO THE OCCASIONAL SLOW BIAS SEEN IN NAM SOLUTIONS
THREE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE.


DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT/SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  SOLUTION TOWARDS ECMWF/CANADIAN
CONFIDENCE:  SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW A SHARP OR AMPLIFIED SOLUTION ALOFT
(IN BETWEEN THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS) AND A
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH A SURFACE LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SUNDAY.  THE 00Z NAM IS SLOW AND MORE CLOSED, WHICH IS ITS USUAL
BIAS THREE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE.  AN AMPLIFIED SOLUTION ALOFT
MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM.  THE
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM`S
TRAILING COLD FRONT.


UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  ABOVE AVERAGE

THE DEPTH/PROGRESSION OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF BEST
FIT THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.  THE 00Z UKMET WAS THE
SLOWEST, WHICH WAS RULED OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.


CYCLONE MOVING OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE:  GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE:  HIGH

THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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