Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 290645
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017

VALID MAY 29/0000 UTC THRU JUN 01/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

OVERALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SURFACE LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

OVERALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM SOUTH TX ON MON TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FEATURE.  HOWEVER...THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER...SHOWING A MORE AMPILIED FEATURE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE MON.

DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE WOBBLING ABOUT ONTARIO
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE PARENT CIRCULATION LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN
ONTARIO ON WED ALONG WITH A COMPACT LOW DIGGING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN CANADA.  THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL BOTH DIG
THE NORTHERN LOW FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...PHASING THE SYSTEMS MORE
QUICKLY THAN THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS/UKMET SHOW.  THE GFS/UKMET ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...LEAVING THE NORTHERN LOW WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN.  DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ALOFT
OVER CANADA...THE MODEL SPREAD EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST...BOTH WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST WED-THU...IS LESS PRONOUNCED AND CAN BE GENERALLY
ADDRESSED WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE.

WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/


PEREIRA

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