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FXUS06 KWBC 281901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JULY 28 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 07 2016

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE EAST AND NORTHWEST COASTS OF THE CONUS AND NEAR THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS DOMINATES MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A ZONAL JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS. RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALTHOUGH THE
HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS DEPICT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE FEATURES IN
THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS, ALTHOUGH YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE INDICATES MODERATE SPREAD
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. TODAY`S 500-HPA BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD INDICATES
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CONUS AND ALASKA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., AND PARTS OF NEW
MEXICO WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE LARGEST POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA.

ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WESTERN ALASKA,
AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN LOWER 48 STATES AND PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. IN ADDITION TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS, ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW
IS LIKELY TO CAUSE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
FURTHER TILTING THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS, LEADING TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
FLORIDA. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
PLAINS, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ENHANCED
MONSOONAL FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES, ENHANCING
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTERIOR NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THE RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE ALASKA PENINSULA, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.
TROUGHING NORTH OF ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
NORTHERN ALASKA. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
YESTERDAY`S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 11 2016

THE WEEK-2 500-HPA ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND PHASES WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY. THE ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI CHARTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE CONUS,
WITH THE LARGEST SPREAD SEEN AMONG YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
TODAY`S BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES SMALL MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS
THE CONUS WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA,
EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PART OF
THE LOWER 48 STATES, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE CONUS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA AND THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST CONUS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS, AIR MASSES
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE EXCEPTION
IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. ENHANCED MONSOONAL
FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. TROUGHING NEAR
THE ALEUTIANS TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THAT
REGION AND WESTERN ALASKA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 15% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, OFFSET BY SMALL MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
AND RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810804 - 19980811 - 19960809 - 20030727 - 19730811


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810804 - 20030728 - 20070707 - 20030717 - 20060722


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 07 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   B    B     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 11 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    N    N
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    N    B
ARKANSAS    N    B     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   N    B
ILLINOIS    N    B     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    N    B
INDIANA     N    B     OHIO        N    B     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   N    B     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    B     CONN        N    B     RHODE IS    N    B
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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