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FXUS06 KWBC 021902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 02 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 12 2015

TODAY`S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER
NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND
WEIGHTS TODAY`S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HEAVILY, BUT INCLUDES A HEALTHY AMOUNT
OF THE RECENT DETERMINISTIC ECMWF. THIS DETERMINISTIC RUN DISPLAYS GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE FORECAST
500-HPA CIRCULATION FEATURES AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH
A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST.

A TELECONNECTION ANALYSIS SEEDED WITH THE CENTER OF THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
FORECAST NEAR 50N AND 120W IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL MANUAL
BLEND, INCLUDING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE DYNAMICAL
SURFACE TOOLS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THAN THE TELECONNECTION GUIDANCE OVER
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. THEREFORE, THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL BEING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ALASKA WERE SHIFTED TO FAVOR NEAR NORMAL, SINCE THE NAEFS HAS A
PRONOUNCED WARM BIAS THERE WHICH APPEARS TO BE LEADING OUR OBJECTIVE BLEND
ASTRAY.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS BASED LARGELY ON THE CALIBRATED GUIDANCE FROM THE
ECMWF AND GEFS SYSTEMS, AUGMENTED BY STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHERE APPROPRIATE.
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED NEAR THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH FORECAST OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS, WHILE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED NEAR AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE
EXTENSION OF PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION WESTWARD FROM
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH A MEAN SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS THAT REGION. THE MAXIMUM IN PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL OVER
THE GREAT BASIN IS BASED ENTIRELY ON DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE, THOUGH CLIMATOLOGY IS
LOW ACROSS THAT REGION. ONE IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION, THOUGH, IS THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EAST PACIFIC COULD BECOME
ENTRAINED IN THE PATTERN.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
AND 30% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE TOOLS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 10 - 16 2015

THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS LESS AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO
THE  6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH NOTABLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CONUS. AT
THIS LEAD, DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW MORE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY, AND
HAD LITTLE WEIGHT IN THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND. THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE FORECAST
PROBABILITIES ARE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCEPT THAT AS THE EASTERN
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKER AND MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE.

THE PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE IS VERY WEAK FOR THE PERIOD, WITH THE STRONGEST
SIGNAL BEING A DIPOLE OF MODEST PROBABILITIES IN THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHERE ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST, AND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE
ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT COASTAL STORM SYSTEM ACTIVITY.
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
SEABOARD ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SLIGHT ODDS FAVORING
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST ARE BASED ON MODEL
GUIDANCE, WHICH COULD INCLUDE REMNANT MOISTURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM NEWLY
FORMED TROPICAL STORM BLANCA IN THE EAST PACIFIC.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11,
30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 40% OF TODAY`S
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OFFSET BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE FORECAST CIRCULATION
PATTERN.

FORECASTER: MIKE CHARLES

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910524 - 19570602 - 19660604 - 19920520 - 20040513


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910523 - 19920520 - 19570602 - 20040606 - 20000601


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 12 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     N    B
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    N    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 10 - 16 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    N
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    B
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    N    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




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