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FXUS06 KWBC 092025
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE FEBRUARY 09 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 19 2016

TODAY`S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE A TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S., AND A
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS OF THE ECMWF, NCEP GEFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS, WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES FORECASTING A WEAKNESS
IN THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER CANADA, COMPARED TO THE NCEP GEFS, AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF CANADA.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED
TEMPERATURE PATTERN. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR ALASKA, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST, AS
WELL AS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH A PREDICTED RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST.

DIFFERENCES IN THE RESPECTIVE HEIGHT FORECASTS OF THE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
SYSTEMS LEAD TO SOME DIFFERENCES IN THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OVER THE
FORECAST DOMAIN. MODELS AGREE ON ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA, INCLUDING THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE OFFICIAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST RESEMBLES MORE CLOSELY GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP GEFS
REFORECAST CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE INDICATES A GREATER PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER
THE WEST AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST THAN OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH A DIFFERENT
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AND TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40%
OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 23 2016

MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN
OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. MODELS PREDICT
A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF ALASKA AS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, HOWEVER WHILE THE
NCEP GEFS EXTENDS A DEEPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN PREDICTS SMALLER MAGNITUDE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE PREDICTED FOR WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD BY THE NCEP GEFS ENSEMBLE, WHILE THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES PREDICT MUCH LOWER MAGNITUDE ANOMALIES OVER THE
WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST.

AS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS
SIMILAR IN DIFFERENT MODEL FORECASTS, WHILE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE PREDICTED PRECIPITATION PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
AGAIN IS A BLEND OF THE NCEP GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS, AS WELL AS THE NAEFS CONSOLIDATION OF THE CANADIAN AND NCEP GEFS.

PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA WITH
PREDICTED SOUTHERLY FLOW. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE NEAR NORMAL IS INDICATED. PREDICTED INCREASING ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST LEAD TO A FORECAST OF WARMER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.

PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR
THE SOUTHWEST, THE GULF COAST, AND THE SOUTHEAST.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO ONLY FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE FORECAST TOOLS.

FORECASTER: CPC FORECASTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19860125 - 19770217 - 19540205 - 19520128 - 19710210


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770216 - 19860125 - 19540206 - 20060209 - 19610119


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 19 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     B    B
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    B     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 23 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  N    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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