Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 272000
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MON FEB 27 2017

VALID 00Z TUE FEB 28 2017 - 00Z THU MAR 02 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM THE ARKLATEX UP THROUGH
THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...

...MANY DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...

...ENHANCED WILDFIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...


A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL BE FEATURED AS THE FORECAST MOVES
TOWARD THE FIRST DAY OF MARCH. STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COUPLED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SET THE STAGES
FOR A MULTI-DAY SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. INITIALLY, THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD FOCUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING EASTWARD DURING THE FOLLOWING COUPLE OF
DAYS. BASED ON THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER, ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES ARE POSSIBLE WITH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A SQUALL LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO FOCUS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY OF THE
MORE CONCENTRATED AXES OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

GIVEN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW AND STRONG SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE
LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES, VERY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. TENS OF
DAILY RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AS WELL AS MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. ON WEDNESDAY, HIGHS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC MAY APPROACH THE MID/UPPER 70S WHILE MANY 60S WILL
ENCOMPASS NEW ENGLAND. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES, MANY
READINGS SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. ON THE CONVERSE, COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE
IMMEDIATE WEST COAST OUT TO THE ROCKIES. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS
TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. ONE SUCH FEATURE TRACKING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP WET CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED. CURRENTLY THE SAN JUANS OF SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROM 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW. IN
RESPONSE TO THE OTHER SYSTEM WITHIN THE NORTHERN TIER, THE
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND BITTERROOTS CAN EXPECT SIMILAR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GIVEN THE WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THERE WILL BE AN
ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES. BASED ON THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE IN THE CRITICAL TO EXTREME
LEVELS ON THEIR FORECASTS. CONSEQUENTLY, LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES
ACROSS THE REGION HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG WARNINGS DUE TO THESE
ADVERSE CONDITIONS.


RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
$$





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