Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 241928
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VALID 00Z FRI JUL 25 2014 - 00Z SUN JUL 27 2014

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CAROLINAS...

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE U.S. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A STORM SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA WILL BE
FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S., ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND WARM FRONT IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND LATER THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION.

IN THE EAST, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. BY TOMORROW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO TEXAS.

IN THE SOUTHWEST, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE TO
THE EAST, TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING.

KREKELER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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