Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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000
FOPZ13 KNHC 241433
PWSEP3

TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182017
1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

ISLAS MARIAS   34 13  24(37)   7(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MAZATLAN       34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

SAN BLAS       34  2  15(17)   5(22)   3(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
SAN BLAS       50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

P VALLARTA     34 16   5(21)   1(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA


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