Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 310630
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

...VALID 06Z THU JUL 31 2014 - 12Z FRI AUG 01 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 S GDP 70 SE MMCS 10 WSW MMCS 15 WNW MMCS 15 NE LRU
35 ENE TCS 55 SSW 4MY 15 SSE 4MY 20 NW SKX 30 NNE VTP 15 W TAD
45 SE RTN 45 WNW TCC 40 W CVS 20 NE ROW 10 S GDP.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE ELD 10 NNE DTN 15 ESE 4F4 15 NE TRL TKI 10 SE GYI
20 NE AQR 25 N MLC 25 WSW JSV 15 ENE FSM 20 ESE RUE LRF
20 NE PBF 15 NW LLQ 20 NNE ELD.


...SE OK INTO THE ARKLATEX...

MODEST LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW DRAWING PWS AOA 2 INCHES INTO AND IN
ADVANCE OF MCV DROPPING SEWD OVER OK SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THRU PARTS
OF ERN TX INTO SRN AR/NRN LA THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM ENERGY HELPS SHIFT 85H INFLOW AND DEEPER MSTR SLOWLY SEWD
THIS PD.  BASED ON RECENT TRENDS BELIEVE 00Z NAM IS TOO FAR NORTH
WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS ACRS THE ARKLATEX REGION..WHILE 00Z HI RES
RUNS SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE MORE SRN TRENDS OF THE STGR
CONVECTION ACRS NRN TX THIS MRNG.  THIS MAY YIELD A NEW MCV THAT
WOULD LIKELY TRACK EWD NEAR THE NRN LA/SRN AR BORDER THIS
MRNG/AFTN GENERATING STEADIER ORGANIZED RAIN/TSTMS NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE MCV WITH TRAILING CONVECTION...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN TX.  KEPT AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BASED ON LARGE MODEL SPREAD ACRS THIS REGION BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME 1 TO 2 INCH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS WITH ISOLD
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES WHERE CELL REGENERATION MAY
OCCUR..SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS.


...SRN CO SWD INTO EXTREME W TX...

WEAK AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PERSIST ACRS
THIS REGION WITH POTNL FOR STG SLOW MOVING CONVECTION FOCUSING A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH TODAY..ESPECIALLY THRU THE FAVORED ERN UPSLOPE
AREAS OF SRN CO INTO ERN NM/EXTREME WRN TX..UNDER WEAK NWLY FLOW
PATRN.   PWS OF UP TO 1.50 INCHES ARE FCST TO WORK THEIR WAY NWWD
INTO PARTS OF WRN TX/NM LATE THUR/THUR NIGHT WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY DVLPG DURING PEAK AFTN HEATING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD AREAS OF TALL SKINNY CAPES ALONG WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW OF
LESS THEN 10 KTS ESPECIALLY ACRS PARTS OF SRN NM/EXTREME W TX
SUGGESTING POTNL FOR SOME SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS  FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER
LOW ACRS THIS REGION DUE TO SOME RECENT RAINS WHICH GIVEN THE
ABOVE SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS.

SULLIVAN



$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.