Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS11 KWBC 012040
QPFHSD

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
439 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

VALID 00Z THU OCT 02 2014 - 00Z SUN OCT 05 2014


DAY 1...

THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW AND/OR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

DESPITE NO HEAVY SNOW PROBABILITIES BEING ISSUED FOR FRI AND
SAT... THERE IS STILL SOME SLIGHT CONCERN FOR PERHAPS ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS NERN ND INTO NWRN MN. A DYNAMIC POLAR SHORT WAVE OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL DIVE SOUTH AND EAST TO REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY LATE THURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO MN ON
FRI WHILE CLOSING OFF A CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION... BEFORE
GRADUALLY PROCEEDING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE OH VALLEY ON SAT.
MEANWHILE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... A WEALTH OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND SHORT WAVE DETAILS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN DETACHED FROM
THE DEVELOPING MID TO UPPER CIRCULATION. THUS EXPECT A VERY TIGHT
GRADIENT OF DYNAMIC COOLING PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE 700/850
MB CIRCULATION. THE ISSUE IF THE THERMAL COLUMN... ESPECIALLY THE
BOUNDARY LAYER... AND MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE
POTENTIAL TO COOL THE ENTIRE COLUMN WITH ENHANCED UVVS. THUS
EXPECT POSSIBLE 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TWO STATES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE IF THE LATEST ECMWF IS CORRECT.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.


MUSHER

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