Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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TXUS20 KNES 030513
SPENES

DAY 1 SATELLITE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION
NESDIS/SAB
####Z #### ### ## ####
VALID 06-18Z

NOTE...THE LACK OF GOES-EAST SOUNDER DATA CONTINUES TO HAVE A NEGATIVE
IMPACT ON THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS THIS EVENING WITH BROAD
BASED AND ANOMALOUS REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY.  WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW, UPPER LOW OVER PORTIONS OF SW
IA WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AS IT CONTINUES EJECTING NE IN
RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS AMPLIFYING SE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
N ROCKIES.

LA-LOWER MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY REGION...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS BACKED
UL FLOW WITH WCB ONLY MAKING SLOW PROGRESS AS BEST UPPER HEIGHT FALLS
WERE SHIFTING NE OF THE AREA.  OVERALL PATTERN WAS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR
TO MADDOX FRONTAL TYPE HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN.  INSTABILITY IS RATHER
MARGINAL AND WAS MOST NOTABLE FROM PORTIONS OF N AL EXTENDING S TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.  FURTHER N, WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS WAS EXTENDING NE
INTO PORTIONS OF S MI.  MOST SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP COOLING OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS WAS FROM SW OH TOWARDS CENTRAL TN AND THEN FURTHER DOWNWIND FROM
PORTIONS OF N AL EXTENDING SW TOWARDS S CENTRAL LA.  MESOANALYSIS WITHIN
THESE REGIONS INDICATE RAINFALL RATES OF OVER 1.0"/HR WITHIN REGIONS
OF NARROW CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH 6 HOUR TOTALS RANGING FROM 2.0-4.0".
LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING VERY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES S TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH PW VALUES OVER 200%
ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD MONTHLY
PW VALUES AT A NUMBER OF REGIONS WITHIN THIS AXIS.  HAVE ALSO NOTED A
SECONDARY AXIS OF MOISTURE STREAMING NNW OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL INTERSECT WITH MAIN FRONTAL AXIS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGHOUT
THE REGION WOULD TEND TO FAVOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TRAINING CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD.  MOST ROBUST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WITHIN HIGHER
THETA-E AIR BUT NARROW BAND OF COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER NE.  ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL INFLOW TOWARDS REGION
OF BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW, REPRESENTED BY DIFFLUENT THICKNESS REGION
NEAR GULF COAST ON 0Z UA ANALYSIS, SHOULD FAVOR THIS REGION FOR SOME
QUASI-STATIONARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OR BACKWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE
COMPONENTS TO ENHANCE THE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THIS REGION.
THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING PORTIONS
OF NW LA TO AID IN FORCING WITHIN THIS REGION WHERE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WAS SURGING NNW FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO.

...HANNA












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