Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 012321
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/01/14 2321Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13             2307Z                 JANKOT
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LOCATION...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN THREAT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAINS/CONVECTION TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS NE OK ENE THROUGH MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND S MO. LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN WATER VAPOR DEPICTS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH N PLAINS AT THIS TIME WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FOR DISCUSSION REGION AS OVERNIGHT
HOURS APPROACH. AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY IN GOES SOUNDER ACROSS N  OK
ENE THROUGH NW AR WHERE CAPES RUNNING CLOSE TO 4000-5000J/KG AND LIS IN
EXCESS OF -5C. THIS INSTABILITY IS ALSO EVIDENT IN SPC MESOANALYSIS.
WITH SFC ANALYSIS PLACING AXIS OF SFC FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS N OK ENE
THROUGH DISCUSSION REGION WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE FOCUS OF NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INTERACTS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THE BLENDED
TPW PRODUCT ALSO DEPICTS INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH DEEP MOISTURE
CONNECTED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NOSED INTO SE MO WHERE PEAK PWATS HOVERING
AROUND 2,0". LATEST RAP/HRRR ALSO SUGGEST INCREASED 25-30 KNOT SW 85H LLJ
SETTING UP LATER THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO DISCUSSION REGION.  WITH VIS IMAGERY NOW SHOWING INCREASED
DEVELOPMENT/ENHANCEMENT ACROSS EXTREME N OK ENE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SW MO
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY WHERE RATES OF 1-2"/HR
IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN CELL MERGERS. WITH LIMITED MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL
AXIS WOULD EXPECT POSSIBLE TRAINING THAT COULD LEAD TO FF ISSUES.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2330-0530Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE WOULD EXPECT INCREASED
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS NE OK ENE
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO. WITH INCREASED LLJ AND ADDED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WOULD ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE CELL TRAINING  WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FF ISSUES. RATES OF 1-2"/HR IS EXPECTED IN DEEPEST CONVECTION/CELL
MERGERS AND THE REGION SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FF ISSUES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3901 9076 3689 8990 3593 9630 3791 9666
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