Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 300728
SWODY3
SPC AC 300727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

...MID SOUTH TO SRN APPALACHIANS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY INTO THE DAY3 PERIOD
WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WRN U.S. AND
TROUGHING IN THE EAST.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING AIDED BY A SEWD-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  VEERED LLJ AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ESEWD
PROPAGATION/DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY.
DIURNAL HEATING MAY AID POTENTIAL UPWARD EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE SEASONALLY MODEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

HIGH PLAINS FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS CNTRL
NEBRASKA...SWWD INTO NERN CO BY 18Z.  THIS WIND SHIFT WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO WRN NEBRASKA/KS BY 03/00Z.  ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE WITHIN FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AS CAP WEAKENS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35KT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK
WHERE CLUSTERING IS POSSIBLE AFTER DARK.  STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORT
WAVE AND EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST HIGHER
SEVERE PROBS MAY BE WARRANTED ACROSS THIS REGION.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..DARROW.. 06/30/2015



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