Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 230751
SWODY3
SPC AC 230750

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...AND PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST.

...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY...IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL BE ONGOING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF IA/MO/IL. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY
CERTAIN HOW MUCH DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...BUT
SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR IF A SEMI-ORGANIZED MCS PERSISTS
INTO A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AIDED BY A
NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET/RELATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...A SECONDARY MCS COULD SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION /INCLUDING PARTS OF IA-MO-IL-INDIANA/ WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST SOME DAMAGING WIND/SPORADIC
HAIL POTENTIAL.

FARTHER WEST...OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR A CENTRAL KS TRIPLE POINT...
NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN KS AND PARTS OF NEB/SD IN VICINITY
OF A FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/STRONG
INSTABILITY AND 35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO
RISK...MAINLY ACROSS KS.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/TX...
A MOIST/STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BE IN PLACE FROM
SOUTHERN KS INTO PARTS OF OK AND WEST/NORTH TX NEAR AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY RISING UPPER HEIGHTS /WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER LOW/...WITH RELATIVELY MODEST NEAR-DRYLINE
CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
/4000+ J PER KG MLCAPE/ WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH 30-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO/DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF/WHERE STORMS DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A RELATIVELY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM
COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE CURRENTLY PRECLUDES A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK...BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
REEVALUATED GIVEN THE VOLATILITY OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
ADDITIONALLY...FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...00Z-BASED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A LOW-LATITUDE/SUBTROPICAL-RELATED DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO
SOME STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VICINITY INTO SOUTH/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

..GUYER.. 05/23/2016

$$


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