Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 220819
SWODY3
SPC AC 220818

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EARLY MONDAY ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA.  A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LONGWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES WILL FEATURE A
RAPIDLY-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ST
LAWRENCE SEAWAY DURING THE PERIOD WHILE A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WRN ATLANTIC.

A 980MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND
DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO CNTRL QUEBEC.  AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS
BY MONDAY EVENING AND TRANSLATE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA.

...ERN NC...
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
LARGELY MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE WRN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...THE SWD EXTENSION OF THE
FRONT OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT MOVE OFF THE COAST UNTIL
MIDDAY.  ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY.  GIVEN A STRONG
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT PARTIALLY RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR...A FEW STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

..SMITH.. 11/22/2014




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