Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 260655
SWODY3
SPC AC 260654

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN ND SEWD
INTO WRN WI...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
WISCONSIN.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE
NRN PLAINS AS SLY FLOW MAINTAINS A MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. DUE TO THE MOIST
AIRMASS...MODERATE INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
LIMIT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG LOCALIZED ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST FROM ERN
ND SEWD INTO WRN WI ALONG A GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY ON THE NRN EDGE
OF THE MOIST SECTOR. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 08/26/2016

$$


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